{"id":43861,"date":"2026-04-12T21:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-12T19:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gnews.cz\/?p=43861"},"modified":"2026-04-13T05:50:52","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T03:50:52","slug":"analyza-hormuzsky-pruliv-anatomie-krize-ktera-otrasa-svetem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gnews.cz\/cs_cz\/neprehlednete\/analyza-hormuzsky-pruliv-anatomie-krize-ktera-otrasa-svetem\/","title":{"rendered":"Anal\u00fdza: Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv – Anatomie krize, kter\u00e1 ot\u0159\u00e1s\u00e1 sv\u011btem"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump vyhl\u00e1sil bezprecedentn\u00ed krok: n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1du Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu ze strany samotn\u00fdch Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Pr\u016fliv, kudy norm\u00e1ln\u011b proud\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b p\u011btina sv\u011btov\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek ropy a zemn\u00edho plynu, je ji\u017e od 28. \u00fanora uzav\u0159en \u00edr\u00e1nskou blok\u00e1dou \u2014 a nyn\u00ed mu hroz\u00ed, \u017ee ho zablokuj\u00ed ob\u011b strany najednou, ka\u017ed\u00e1 z jin\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f a jin\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky. V na\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdze shrnujeme v\u00fdvoj krize, mapujeme motivace v\u0161ech kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f a nab\u00edz\u00edme sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chronologie eskalace<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ko\u0159eny krize sahaj\u00ed do nezda\u0159en\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v \u017denev\u011b a p\u0159edchoz\u00edho dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00edho vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho konfliktu v roce 2025. Samotn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka vypukla 28. \u00fanora 2026, kdy Izrael a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty americk\u00e9 zah\u00e1jily koordinovan\u00e9 \u00fatoky na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 a jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. P\u0159i operaci byl zabit nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u016fdce Al\u00ed Chamene\u00ed i \u0159ada dal\u0161\u00edch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f re\u017eimu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n odpov\u011bd\u011bl razantn\u011b: raketov\u00fdmi a dronov\u00fdmi \u00fatoky na americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v regionu, na Izrael i arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. A p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm uzav\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu. Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 revolu\u010dn\u00ed gardy (IRGC) ozn\u00e1mily, \u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 lo\u010f nesm\u00ed pr\u016flivem projet bez \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho souhlasu, a za\u010daly v pr\u016flivu kl\u00e1st n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed miny. Dopady byly okam\u017eit\u00e9 a brut\u00e1ln\u00ed \u2014 provoz v pr\u016flivu klesl o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 90 %, cena ropy Brent p\u0159esko\u010dila 120 dolar\u016f za barel, ceny zemn\u00edho plynu se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zdvojn\u00e1sobily. P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 230 nalo\u017een\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch tanker\u016f uv\u00edzlo v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a p\u0159es 20 000 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edk\u016f z\u016fstalo bez dostate\u010dn\u00e9ho z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed j\u00eddlem, vodou i palivem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n mezit\u00edm zavedl syst\u00e9m selektivn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edstupu: lod\u011b pluj\u00edc\u00ed pod \u010d\u00ednskou nebo indickou vlajkou mohly projet za poplatek a\u017e dva miliony dolar\u016f za lo\u010f, ostatn\u00ed nikoli. Pr\u016fliv se z mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vodn\u00ed cesty prom\u011bnil v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd m\u00fdtn\u00fd most.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Selh\u00e1n\u00ed diplomacie a americk\u00e1 blok\u00e1da<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na za\u010d\u00e1tku dubna bylo vyhl\u00e1\u0161eno dvout\u00fddenn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, vyjednan\u00e9 p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi zprost\u0159edkovateli. Pr\u016fliv se v\u0161ak prakticky neotev\u0159el – \u00cdr\u00e1n nebyl schopen ani ochoten odstranit miny, kter\u00e9 tam s\u00e1m polo\u017eil, a selektivn\u00ed provoz pokra\u010doval. V Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du prob\u011bhla trojstrann\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed na nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farovni: americk\u00e1 delegace veden\u00e1 viceprezidentem J.D. Vancem, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd parlamentn\u00ed p\u0159edseda Ghal\u00edbaf a p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r jako hostitel. Po 21 hodin\u00e1ch diskuze jedn\u00e1n\u00ed zkrachovala. Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 sporn\u00e9 body byly dva – kontrola nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd program – a Teher\u00e1n odm\u00edtal jak\u00fdkoliv kompromis v obou ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Trumpova reakce p\u0159i\u0161la t\u00e9ho\u017e dne. Na Truth Social napsal: \u201eEfektivn\u011b ihned za\u010dne N\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f s procesem BLOKOV\u00c1N\u00cd ve\u0161ker\u00fdch lod\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se pokou\u0161ej\u00ed vstoupit nebo opustit Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv.“<\/em> Prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo bude zastavovat lod\u011b, kter\u00e9 zaplatily \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 m\u00fdtn\u00e9, a ozna\u010dil \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd postup za \u201esv\u011btov\u00e9 vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed“<\/em>. Pr\u016fliv za\u010dnou americk\u00e9 s\u00edly z\u00e1rove\u0148 odminov\u00e1vat.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Trumpovo rozhodnut\u00ed bylo \u00fadajn\u011b p\u0159ipravov\u00e1no n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed jako z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00ed pl\u00e1n. Den p\u0159ed n\u00edm vy\u0161la zpr\u00e1va na CNN, kterou vypustily americk\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 zdroje: \u010c\u00edna se p\u0159ipravuje dodat \u00cdr\u00e1nu p\u0159enosn\u00e9 protiletadlov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my MANPADS, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e z\u00e1silky pr\u00fd hodl\u00e1 maskovat p\u0159es t\u0159et\u00ed zem\u011b. Trump na to reagoval slovy: \u201ePokud to \u010c\u00edna ud\u011bl\u00e1, bude m\u00edt velk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my.“<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tato zpr\u00e1va nebyla vypu\u0161t\u011bna n\u00e1hodn\u011b, \u0161lo o z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b uvoln\u011bnou zpravodajskou informaci, vyp\u00e1lenou den p\u0159ed kolapsem jedn\u00e1n\u00ed jako diplomatick\u00e1 zbra\u0148 a z\u00e1rove\u0148 jako zd\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00ed toho, co Washington hodlal ud\u011blat tak jako tak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd faktor: Tich\u00fd hr\u00e1\u010d s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi s\u00e1zkami<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u010c\u00edna je na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm odb\u011bratelem \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy, p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b t\u0159etina \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho ropn\u00e9ho importu te\u010de p\u0159es Hormuz. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b si zachov\u00e1v\u00e1 image nestrann\u00e9ho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho hr\u00e1\u010de a facilit\u00e1tora m\u00edru. Zpr\u00e1va o chystan\u00fdch dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch MANPADS tak m\u011bla podkopat d\u016fv\u011bru v Peking jako nestrann\u00e9ho hr\u00e1\u010de.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Americk\u00e1 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1da, kter\u00e1 zahrnuje zastavov\u00e1n\u00ed lod\u00ed, je\u017e zaplatily \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 m\u00fdtn\u00e9, p\u0159itom c\u00edl\u00ed implicitn\u011b pr\u00e1v\u011b na \u010c\u00ednu a Indii – jedin\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 pr\u016flivem re\u00e1ln\u011b proj\u00ed\u017ed\u011bly. Jde tedy o nep\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 ultim\u00e1tum Pekingu, a to pouh\u00e9 t\u0159i t\u00fddny p\u0159ed pl\u00e1novanou Trumpovou n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvou \u010c\u00edny. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 velvyslanectv\u00ed ve Washingtonu zpr\u00e1vu o MANPADS odm\u00edtlo jako \u201enepravdivou“.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evropsk\u00fd paradox: Z\u00e1vislost bez solidarity<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evropa je v krizi ve sv\u00e9m postaven\u00ed, kter\u00e9 lze bez nads\u00e1zky nazvat strategickou past\u00ed. Odm\u00edtnut\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dasti bylo ze strany kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f jednozna\u010dn\u00e9. N\u011bmeck\u00fd ministr obrany Boris Pistorius<\/strong> \u0159ekl: \u201eTohle nen\u00ed na\u0161e v\u00e1lka. My jsme ji neza\u010dali.“<\/em> Francouzsk\u00fd prezident Emmanuel Macron<\/strong> prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee Francie se nikdy nezapoj\u00ed do operac\u00ed k otev\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016flivu v sou\u010dasn\u00e9m kontextu, a\u010dkoli vyslala do regionu polovinu sv\u00fdch hlavn\u00edch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch plavidel v \u010dist\u011b defenzivn\u00ed roli. \u0160\u00e9fka unijn\u00ed diplomacie Kaja Kallasov\u00e1<\/strong> konstatovala, \u017ee mezi \u010dlensk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty nen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 ochota roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed misi Aspides z Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e na Hormuz a \u017ee \u201enikdo nechce aktivn\u011b vstoupit do t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky“<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u0159itom Evropa uzav\u0159en\u00edm pr\u016flivu trp\u00ed citeln\u011b. Ceny pohonn\u00fdch hmot l\u00e1mou rekordy a jak Kallasov\u00e1 sama upozornila – vysok\u00e9 ceny energi\u00ed paradoxn\u011b pln\u00ed rusk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det a financuj\u00ed Putinovu v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b. Evropa je tedy v situaci, kdy ekonomicky trp\u00ed a z\u00e1rove\u0148 t\u00edm nep\u0159\u00edmo posiluje sv\u00e9ho strategick\u00e9ho protivn\u00edka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Za odm\u00edtnut\u00edm stoj\u00ed soub\u011bh n\u011bkolika faktor\u016f, kter\u00e9 se navz\u00e1jem posiluj\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pr\u00e1vn\u00ed a institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u00e1mec je re\u00e1lnou p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekou – N\u011bmecko m\u00e1 \u00fastavn\u00ed omezen\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00edch vojensk\u00fdch nasazen\u00ed vy\u017eaduj\u00edc\u00ed mand\u00e1t Bundestagu a NATO je definov\u00e1no jako aliance kolektivn\u00ed obrany \u00fazem\u00ed, nikoliv jako n\u00e1stroj pro operace mimo ni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mor\u00e1ln\u00ed argument je rovn\u011b\u017e opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u00fd: USA a Izrael zah\u00e1jily v\u00e1lku bez konzultace se spojenci a nyn\u00ed po nich \u017e\u00e1daj\u00ed, aby nesly \u010d\u00e1st n\u00e1klad\u016f a rizik za rozhodnut\u00ed, ke kter\u00e9mu nebyly p\u0159izv\u00e1ny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u0159et\u00ed faktor je politicky nejcitliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a nejm\u00e9n\u011b verbalizovan\u00fd, p\u0159esto re\u00e1ln\u011b velmi vlivn\u00fd. Francie m\u00e1 odhadem p\u011bt a\u017e \u0161est milion\u016f muslimsk\u00fdch obyvatel, N\u011bmecko p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b p\u011bt milion\u016f, Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u010dty\u0159i miliony, \u0160pan\u011blsko p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b dva miliony. Nejde o monolitick\u00fd blok – velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st jsou sekul\u00e1rn\u00ed ob\u010dan\u00e9 s minim\u00e1ln\u00ed vazbou na bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed politiku. Ale v konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch volebn\u00edch obvodech, p\u0159edm\u011bst\u00edch Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ee, lond\u00fdnsk\u00e9m East Endu nebo berl\u00ednsk\u00fdch \u010dtvrt\u00edch, m\u016f\u017ee muslimsk\u00fd elektor\u00e1t tvo\u0159it 20\u201340 % voli\u010d\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Britsk\u00e9 volby 2024 poslou\u017eily jako p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 laborato\u0159 tohoto jevu: Starmerova labouristick\u00e1 strana ztratila n\u011bkolik tradi\u010dn\u011b bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch k\u0159esel pr\u00e1v\u011b kv\u016fli odlivu muslimsk\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f rozho\u0159\u010den\u00fdch jeho postojem ke Gaze, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e propalestin\u0161t\u00ed nez\u00e1visl\u00ed kandid\u00e1ti usp\u011bli. Starmer toto volebn\u00ed trauma pro\u017eil osobn\u011b – a jeho opatrnost v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 krizi je p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm d\u016fsledkem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Politick\u00fd kalkul vl\u00e1d je v tomto kontextu chladn\u011b racion\u00e1ln\u00ed, i kdy\u017e se o n\u011bm nemluv\u00ed nahlas:<\/strong> vojensk\u00e1 \u00fa\u010dast by p\u0159inesla symbolick\u00fd bod za solidaritu s USA, ale za cenu ztr\u00e1ty tis\u00edc\u016f hlas\u016f v kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch obvodech, m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f protest\u016f a re\u00e1ln\u00fdch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch rizik. Evropsk\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby opakovan\u011b varuj\u00ed, \u017ee eskalace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b zvy\u0161uje riziko dom\u00e1c\u00edch \u00fatok\u016f – vstup do operace vn\u00edman\u00e9 jako \u00fatok na muslimsk\u00fd st\u00e1t by byl p\u0159esn\u011b t\u00edm katalyz\u00e1torem radikalizace, p\u0159ed kter\u00fdm varuj\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump za odm\u00edtnut\u00ed Evropu tvrd\u011b kritizuje, hroz\u00ed sta\u017een\u00edm americk\u00fdch vojsk z nespolupracuj\u00edc\u00edch zem\u00ed a jeho setk\u00e1n\u00ed s gener\u00e1ln\u00edm tajemn\u00edkem NATO Markem Ruttem<\/strong> se podle Politica prom\u011bnilo v \u201etir\u00e1du ur\u00e1\u017eek“<\/em>. Alianci hroz\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd faktor: Vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed nebo slep\u00e1 uli\u010dka?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n je ze v\u0161ech akt\u00e9r\u016f v nejslo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pozici. V\u00e1lka z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti zdevastovala jeho vojensk\u00fd potenci\u00e1l – bylo zabito veden\u00ed st\u00e1tu v\u010detn\u011b Chamene\u00edho, zni\u010deno letectvo, protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana i \u010d\u00e1st n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva. Ekonomika je pod tlakem, z\u00e1soby se ten\u010d\u00ed. P\u0159esto Teher\u00e1n dr\u017e\u00ed jedin\u00fd skute\u010dn\u00fd trumf: pr\u016fliv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Miny, kter\u00e9 IRGC narychlo kladla v prvn\u00edch dnech v\u00e1lky, nejsou v\u0161echny zdokumentov\u00e1ny – \u00cdr\u00e1n ztratil p\u0159ehled o \u010d\u00e1sti z nich a fyzicky nem\u016f\u017ee pr\u016fliv otev\u0159\u00edt tak rychle, jak Trump po\u017eaduje, jeho obrana je toti\u017e zalo\u017een\u00e1 na diverzifikaci zdroj\u016f. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed mluvil o \u201etechnick\u00fdch omezen\u00edch“<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd parlament mezit\u00edm p\u0159ipravuje n\u00e1vrh z\u00e1kona, kter\u00fd by pr\u016fjezd pr\u016flivem form\u00e1ln\u011b zpoplatnil – pokus institucionalizovat m\u00fdtn\u00e9 a trvale zm\u011bnit pr\u00e1vn\u00ed status mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vodn\u00ed cesty. Trump to odm\u00edt\u00e1 jako nep\u0159ijateln\u00e9 a protipr\u00e1vn\u00ed, Evropsk\u00e1 komise rovn\u011b\u017e ozna\u010dila jak\u00e9koliv m\u00fdtn\u00e9, ze strany \u00cdr\u00e1nu i ze strany USA, za poru\u0161en\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va a pr\u016fliv za \u201eve\u0159ejn\u00fd statek cel\u00e9ho lidstva“. Jedn\u00e1 se p\u0159itom o jedin\u00fd doposud nezpoplatn\u011bn\u00fd pr\u016fliv na sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Situace se m\u011bn\u00ed po hodin\u00e1ch a jak\u00e1koliv predikce nese vysokou m\u00edru nejistoty. P\u0159esto lze na z\u00e1klad\u011b logiky akt\u00e9r\u016f a historick\u00fdch precedent\u016f vymezit p\u011bt pravd\u011bpodobnostn\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  • Diplomatick\u00e9 zlomen\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu<\/strong> je sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 st\u0159edn\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnosti: americk\u00e1 blok\u00e1da ekonomicky dus\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n natolik, \u017ee se vr\u00e1t\u00ed k jedn\u00e1n\u00edm za hor\u0161\u00edch podm\u00ednek. Analytici odhaduj\u00ed, \u017ee americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo je schopno degradovat \u00edr\u00e1nskou schopnost blokovat pr\u016fliv na \u201ezvladatelnou \u00farove\u0148“<\/em>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • P\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 eskalace<\/strong> v pr\u016flivu je re\u00e1ln\u00fdm rizikem: americk\u00e1 lo\u010f zastav\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd nebo indick\u00fd tanker, \u00cdr\u00e1n nebo jin\u00fd akt\u00e9r reaguje vojensky. Pr\u016fliv je jen 39 km v neju\u017e\u0161\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b \u2014 reak\u010dn\u00ed \u010dasy pro protilo\u010fn\u00ed st\u0159ely, drony a rychl\u00e9 \u010dluny jsou minutov\u00e9, a i mocn\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo je v takov\u00e9m prostoru zraniteln\u00e9.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • \u010c\u00edna jako nov\u00fd zprost\u0159edkovatel<\/strong> je zaj\u00edmavou mo\u017enost\u00ed: Peking m\u00e1 z\u00e1jem na otev\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016flivu, ale nechce p\u0159ijmout americk\u00e9 podm\u00ednky, a mohl by nab\u00eddnout vlastn\u00ed diplomatick\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bnou za z\u00e1ruky sv\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstupu k energi\u00edm.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Trumpovo couvnut\u00ed nelze vylou\u010dit<\/strong> – pokud by blok\u00e1da fakticky zastavila \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 a indick\u00e9 tankery, zp\u016fsobila by okam\u017eit\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed cenov\u00fd \u0161ok a Trump by mohl rychle p\u0159eformulovat podm\u00ednky tak, aby si zachoval tv\u00e1\u0159. Tuto tendenci politologov\u00e9 ozna\u010duj\u00ed zkratkou TACO. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Dlouhodob\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 fragmentace<\/strong> je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejre\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem bez ohledu na bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed vojensk\u00fd v\u00fdvoj: krize zp\u016fsob\u00ed trval\u00e9 p\u0159eskupen\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9ho trhu s energiemi, Asie hled\u00e1 alternativn\u00ed dodavatele, Evropa urychluje diverzifikaci a sv\u011btov\u00fd obchod se d\u00e1le fragmentuje do geopolitick\u00fdch blok\u016f.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Sv\u011bt bez dobr\u00fdch \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Krize v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu nen\u00ed jen region\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00fd konflikt. Je to pr\u016fse\u010d\u00edk hned n\u011bkolika syst\u00e9mov\u00fdch kriz\u00ed najednou – americk\u00e9 hegemonie a jej\u00edch limit\u016f, \u010d\u00ednsko-americk\u00e9ho soupe\u0159en\u00ed o vliv, demografick\u00fdch a politick\u00fdch p\u0159em\u011bn v Evrop\u011b, nestability Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu po dek\u00e1d\u00e1ch ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch intervenc\u00ed a k\u0159ehkosti glob\u00e1ln\u00edho energetick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu postaven\u00e9ho na p\u0159edpokladu m\u00edru.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Trumpova blok\u00e1da posunula krizi do nov\u00e9 f\u00e1ze. Nen\u00ed to \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed – je to eskalace s nejasn\u00fdm c\u00edlem. Pokud ji \u00cdr\u00e1n ustoj\u00ed a \u010c\u00edna neustoup\u00ed, dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed se USA do situace, kde bu\u010f mus\u00ed couvnout s po\u0161kozenou reputac\u00ed, nebo eskalovat d\u00e1l. Ob\u011b mo\u017enosti maj\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 d\u016fsledky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Pro Evropu nast\u00e1v\u00e1 moment, kdy se bude muset rozhodnout, zda pasivn\u00ed p\u0159ihl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed je udr\u017eiteln\u00e1 strategie nebo zda cena za ne\u00fa\u010dast v podob\u011b ekonomick\u00e9 bolesti, energetick\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti a eroduj\u00edc\u00edho vlivu je nakonec vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e cena \u00fa\u010dasti. Zat\u00edm vol\u00ed p\u0159ihl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed. Ale \u010das hraje proti n\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    gnews.cz – GH<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump vyhl\u00e1sil bezprecedentn\u00ed krok: n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1du Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu ze strany samotn\u00fdch Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Pr\u016fliv, kudy norm\u00e1ln\u011b proud\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b p\u011btina…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":29917,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3,7,2973],"tags":[1264,22,496,7012,5327,2085,5194,3710,12706,12680,12707,12710,12708,56,991,17,41],"class_list":["post-43861","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-neprehlednete","category-politika","category-zahranicni","tag-blizkay-vychod","tag-cina","tag-donald-trump","tag-energeticka-krize","tag-eskalace","tag-geopolitika","tag-globalni-obchod","tag-hormuzsky-pruliv","tag-iranska-blokada","tag-jaderny-program-iranu","tag-manpads","tag-muslimsky-elektorat","tag-namorni-blokada-usa","tag-nato","tag-ropa","tag-top","tag-world"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gnews.cz\/cs_cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43861","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gnews.cz\/cs_cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gnews.cz\/cs_cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gnews.cz\/cs_cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gnews.cz\/cs_cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43861"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/gnews.cz\/cs_cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43861\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":43881,"href":"https:\/\/gnews.cz\/cs_cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43861\/revisions\/43881"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gnews.cz\/cs_cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29917"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gnews.cz\/cs_cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43861"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gnews.cz\/cs_cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43861"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gnews.cz\/cs_cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43861"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}