In less than two weeks, the US presidential election will take place, and virtually the whole world is watching it with interest. A STEM/MARK poll of a representative sample of the Czech adult population showed that the majority of Czechs are rooting for Kamala Harris. Twice as many respondents want her to win than Donald Trump to win. Neither, however, is explicitly likeable to the people and it is more a search for the lesser evil. Donald Trump is preferred by voters of the SPD, the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia and the Motorists, while Kamala Harris is preferred by voters of the parties of the current governing coalition
A total of 53 % respondents (after removing those who don't care about the US presidential election) prefer Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. 27 % respondents favour Donald Trump among Republicans and the remaining 20 % have no opinion. "Young Czechs under the age of 45, individuals from households with higher incomes, and especially the college-educated, among whom two-thirds of those surveyed support Harris, are more likely to side with her." says research analyst Radek Pileček.
Trump, on the other hand, is more likely to be won by men (compared to women), people without a high school diploma, seniors over 60, and individuals from low-income households. From a regional perspective, people living in Moravia are more supportive of Trump than those living in the Czech Republic, while Harris would have the highest electoral support in the Czech Republic in the capital Prague, where 65 % of citizens favor her, while only 16 % favor Trump.
During the US presidential election, the media tend to present maps with red states (Republican Party victory) and blue states (Democratic Party victory). "Kamala Harris would have majority support in 13 of the 14 Czech regions, according to the survey, so the relevant electoral map would be almost uniformly blue," Pileček comments, adding that the only region with a majority of support for Trump is Olomouc.
Large differences are evident depending on the respondents' current preferences for the Czech parliamentary elections. Kamala Harris absolutely dominates among potential voters of the parties of the current governing coalition (and also among supporters of the Pirates). Among TOP 09 voters, 95 % of respondents expressed their support for her, but even among voters of other parties of the former "five-coalition" the share of her fans is around 80 %. On the other hand, 7 out of 10 voters of the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia would like Donald Trump more as the new US president, as would a majority of voters of the SPD or the Motorists. YES voters are divided into two equally sized camps on this question - 2/5 favor Harris, 2/5 favor Trump (and the remaining fifth have no strong opinion).
For most people, it is more about seeking the lesser of two evils. Fewer than 1/4 of respondents have sympathy for either of the two candidates
When asked about the main reason why people root for a particular candidate, the most frequent answer was that it seemed like the more acceptable option - for Donald Trump in 66 % cases, for Kamala Harris in 48 % cases. More than a quarter (27 %) of Harris' supporters even support her only because Trump would not win; by contrast, among Trump supporters, such an expressed reason in the form of a strong aversion to the opposing candidate is considerably less common (6 %).
Both candidates have very similar (or more accurately, similarly low) proportions of people who wish them victory purely because of sympathy for their personality or views - 22 % for Trump and 24 % for Harris. For example, a middle-aged man from the Oust region said the following: "Trump has been president before, he has experience and he can talk the talk." One pensioner from the Liberec region, on the other hand, supported Harris, saying: "He is not a man before death. There should be age limits in politics from both sides," alluding to the high age of the Republican candidate (78). "The reasons for the Czech population's preference for Harris or Trump clearly show that most people do not like either of them very much, they are just looking for the more acceptable option," Pileček concludes.
A total of 1018 respondents representing the Czech Internet population over 18 years of age, proportionally by gender, age, highest level of education, region and size of the municipality of residence participated in the STEM/MARK survey conducted via an online survey at the Czech National Panel. The data collection took place between 26 September and 20 October 2024. If any of the graphs do not add up to 100 %, this is only the result of automatic rounding.
STEM/MARK/ gnews - RoZ
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