According to Median's electoral model for October, seven political parties and movements would make it into the Chamber of Deputies. ANO has the highest voter preference (33.5 %). This is followed by ODS (12 %), STAN (11 %), Pirates (6.5 %), Motorists (61 %), KSČM (5 %) and SPD (5 %). The parties of the current government coalition (ODS + TOP 09 + KDU-ČSL + STAN) have a combined support of 30.5 % potential voters. Without forming pre-election coalitions, they would have won 57 seats. The willingness to participate in the elections has risen to 59.5 % after a drop in September.
According to its statement, 51.5 % people would definitely participate in the elections to the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Republic in October 2024. Another 8 % respondents are considering participation. The willingness to participate in the elections has increased compared to the last survey. The increase may be due to the polarisation and activation of different parts of Czech society. Certainly 31 % of respondents would not go to the PSP elections, rather 9.5 % would not. The voter turnout in the elections to the Chamber of Deputies in October 2021 was 65.43 %. Compared to the 2021 election, fewer voters would turn out to vote in October 2024, by more than 5 percentage points.
33.5 % voters would vote for ANO in October. ODS would finish second with 12 %. The mayors (11 %) would remain third. The Pirates dropped to 6.5 %. The Motorists would newly enter the House with 6 %. The Communist Party of Czechoslovakia and the SPD (5 %) have also crossed the five-percent threshold. TOP 09 (4 %) is below the 5% threshold needed to enter the chamber, while KDU-ČSL and Přísaha have the same 3.5 %. SOCDEM got 3 % and the PRO 2022 party has 2 %. The ANO movement is the most common choice of people aged 35 and over. YES is the top choice among pensioner-age voters, half of whom would vote for this movement.
ODS has the majority of its voters in the 45-54 age group. More than a third of all its voters are employees with higher incomes. The STAN movement has the most support in the 18-24 age group. It also has the highest support among university-educated voters. National support for the Pirates is steadily declining. The SPD has also seen a decline. Both entities lost 2 % voters compared to September. The simple sum of the preferences of the four governing parties without forming a coalition gives a total of 30.5 %.
In a hypothetical election in October, ANO would win 85 seats, ODS 30, STAN 27, Pirates 16, Motorists 16, KSČM 13 and SPD 13. A coalition of ANO + STAN would have a majority of 112 MPs. A two-party coalition between ANO and Pirates (101 seats) and ANO and Motorists (101 seats) would have a narrow majority. The current governing coalition (ODS, TOP 09, KDU-ČSL, STAN) would have 57 seats. However, the seat gains do not take into account possible pre-election mergers of parties.
Both the Pirates and the SPD saw their voter preferences and electoral potential drop (the Pirates significantly more from 20 % to 13.5 %). Both groups received 2 % fewer votes than in September.
The electoral potential of ANO is 41.5 %, its core electorate is growing (28 %). The second highest electoral potential is held by the Mayors (22.5 %). The potential of ODS has grown to 22 %, while the Pirates have fallen to 13.5 %. The potential of the SPD movement has also dropped (8 %).
median/ gnews - RoZ
