After 15 months of devastating fighting, Israel and Hamas agreed on a three-phase ceasefire agreement for the hostages on January 15, brokered by Qatar, Egypt and the United States. In his farewell address from the Oval Office the same day, US President Joe Biden announced the agreement, claimed credit for it and said that President-elect Donald Trump's team would be responsible for ensuring its implementation.
How might the incoming Trump administration affect the outcome of the deal and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in general? Can his first term offer any clues?
Biden and Trump both claim credit
Under the Gaza ceasefire agreement, the first phase, lasting 42 days, will see a ceasefire and the withdrawal and redeployment of Israeli forces outside densely populated areas in Gaza.
Hamas will also release 33 hostages in exchange for Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners by the end of the first phase. Further details of the other phases will be announced after the first phase has been implemented.
In a statement announcing the ceasefire, Biden said it reflected the "precise contours" of the proposal he made on May 31, 2024, and praised "persistent and careful" U.S. diplomacy. "My diplomacy has never ceased in its efforts to achieve this goal."
In his farewell speech on Wednesday evening, he went even further: "This plan was developed and negotiated by my team and will be largely implemented by the incoming administration," Biden added.
When one of the reporters asked who in history will be credited with the ceasefire agreement that was months in the making, him or Trump, Biden smiled and replied: "Is this a joke?"
But Trump wasted no time in taking his share of the credit. "This EPIC ceasefire agreement could only have happened as a result of our historic victory in November, as it signaled to the entire world that my administration will pursue peace and negotiate agreements that ensure the security of all Americans and our allies," said in a post on his social network Truth Social, referring to his victory in the US presidential election.
Trump's team also argued that the Biden administration was unable to secure a permanent ceasefire in Gaza until Trump and his newly appointed Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, entered the Doha talks.
A weekend meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Witkoff led to a breakthrough in stalled negotiations, with Witkoff "did more"to Netanyahu "in a single session, he made more impact than outgoing President Joe Biden did in an entire year." two Arab officials told The Times of Israel on Tuesday.
Wang Jin, deputy director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at Northwest China University, said the deal was closely related to Trump's assumption of office.
In fact, the first phase of the deal will go into effect on Sunday, on the eve of Trump's inauguration as the 47th US president, Wang told CGTN.
During the final stages of the negotiations, the US side sent two envoys, from the outgoing Biden and incoming Trump administrations, to put pressure on all parties involved, a rare occurrence in American history, he noted.
The U.S. exerted considerable pressure, which was a decisive external factor for all parties, including Israel and Hamas, in their decision-making, Wang analyzed.
Trump's unilateral pro-Israel policy 1.0
Since 7 October 2023, when Israel launched a major offensive against Hamas in Gaza in response to the group's sudden attack on Israel's southern border, more than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed, including an estimated 55 % women, children and elderly.
Observers believe that Trump's unilateral support for Israel during his first term in office from 2017-2021 encouraged strong political, economic and security pressure from Israel on Palestinian factions. This has exacerbated the growing anxiety and militancy that has fueled the provocative actions of Hamas, a proponent of armed resistance against Israel.
Despite strong Palestinian opposition, Trump announced the "deal of the century," a controversial Middle East peace plan aimed at resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, on January 28, 2020. The plan included recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's "undivided capital" and recognition of Israeli sovereignty over Jewish settlements in the West Bank. In May 2018, he moved the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
The political framework of the "deal of the century" is key to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as it includes Washington's positions on border demarcation, Jewish settlements, the status of Jerusalem, refugees and the future security arrangement between the two sides, he wrote in a recent article for local media Liu Zhongmin, professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies, Shanghai University of International Studies.
"It is entirely a product of the logic of the United States, which is zero-sum thinking, unilateralism and power politics," Liu said.
The agreement, unilaterally introduced by Trump in his first term, is, in his view, a significant departure from the principles of international law, the spirit of UN resolutions and the historical basis of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
By imposing such an agreement on the Palestinians, the Trump administration has set the stage for the latest round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
In addition, Trump recognised Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Syrian territory of the Golan Heights. Based on the Abraham Accords, he also allowed for the normalisation of relations between Israel and four Arab countries: the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco in 2020.
What can we expect from Trump 2.0?
President-elect Donald Trump's personnel choices for his Middle East team could provide some clues to his approach to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the broader Middle East peace process, and may indicate his strategy.
Witkoff, a New York real estate investor and campaign contributor, has been named Trump's special envoy to the Middle East. Witkoff, who is Jewish, was seen as a bridge between Trump and the Jewish business community during the campaign.
Particularly telling is Trump's appointment of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's U.S. Ambassador to Israel. Huckabee, a staunch supporter of Israel, is a proponent of Jewish settlements in the West Bank and has a history of controversial statements, such as his 2008 claim that "there's really no such thing as a Palestinian".
In his recent post on the social network Truth during the Gaza deal report, Trump also said his national security team would use the moment of the ceasefire to further advance the Abrahamic Accords.
The predictable U.S. tilt toward Israel and Trump's determination to enforce the "deal of the century" and the Abrahamic Accords in his second term, along with the ceasefire pact's internal flaws, will put Palestine at an even greater disadvantage, Liu said.
Wang, a Middle East researcher at Northwest China University, shares the same view.
Through a new alliance framework in which Washington is rebuilding relations between Middle Eastern countries, particularly by promoting diplomatic ties between Arab nationals and Israel, the incoming Trump administration hopes to reshape a new U.S.-dominated security and political environment with the broad participation of its allies in the Middle East, Wang told CGTN.
He said that given Trump's track record, his administration is likely to pursue more radical or controversial policies, such as trying to address the Palestinian political issue through economic offsets.
As he did in his first term, Trump has made it clear under the "deal of the century" that he will push the Palestinians to give up vast territories by leveraging economic aid and reconstruction efforts to be funded by the Gulf Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia, Wang explained.
However, this approach neither meets the broad expectations of the international community on the Palestinian issue nor respects the feelings of the Palestinian people, he said.
Wang added that the prevailing expectation in the international community is to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict through a two-state solution that recognizes the right of the Palestinian people to an independent state while gradually promoting broader recognition of the political status of Palestine.
CMG/ gnews - RoZ
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