The price of gold is still breaking records. In ten years, the precious metal has brought its owners a return of over 40 thousand crowns per ounce. According to experts, the long-term price growth is far from over. They expect a partial decline in the second half of the year.
The price of gold has historically been rising with minor fluctuations. As recently as 1923, a troy ounce of gold could be bought for a now unimaginable $20; a hundred years later, the price was nearly 100 times that. "Until 1973, the price of gold was below $100 per troy ounce, but it was in 1973 that the price of gold took a big leap, rising by more than $40 in one year. It reached its then peak in 1980, when the price approached $800 per ounce. Thereafter, there was a long decline and gold did not return to significant growth until 2006. Since then, with minor fluctuations, the price has risen steadily. Gold first surpassed the magic one thousand dollar per ounce mark in the spring of 2008 and finally broke the two thousand dollar mark in 2024. Today we are close to breaking the three thousand dollar per troy ounce mark." described by Roman Pilíšek, economist and co-founder of Zlaté rezervy.
According to analyses, the gold price develops in eight-year cycles. The peak of the current cycle could occur as early as 2026, but it would not be surprising if the rise peaked at the end of this decade. Thereafter, there will be a longer-term decline in the price. "Since the 1970s, the gold market has developed in long-term cycles. At the end of 2022, a new roughly eight-year cycle began. We have been using long-term data since 1968, when the first eight-year cycle began. We are currently in the eighth cycle. In only one case has the cycle had a declining outcome. In the rest of the cases, the gold price has risen on average between 100 and 400 percent. Given the state of Western economies and the international political situation, we expect that the gold price could reach as high as $3,200 as early as the first half of this year," He said Jan Zeleznik, analyst and co-founder of Zlaté rezervy.
During the eight-year cycle, the price of gold fluctuates and there are, of course, dips, which should be used for buying. "We expect that the gold price could fall in the second half of this year, with a drop of between 10 and 20 percent from the peak. Then, from around autumn onwards, we expect a further rise. In the long term, pretty much any time is a good time to buy gold - for example, people who bought gold a decade ago when the price per ounce was around CZK 35,000 are now selling for sums in excess of CZK 70,000 per ounce. If someone buys gold today and sells it in three months, they won't make much money, but if they sell it in a few years, the appreciation is certain," the analyst concluded.
(za)/ gnews.cz - RoZ
English 
Czech 
Spanish 
French 
Italian 
Russian 
Chinese 
German