Breaking news: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and US plans for a ground operation in the Middle East conflict

Iranian Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari, an advisor to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has vowed to „burn“ any tanker that attempts to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is not currently planning a ground operation in Tehran, but President Donald Trump has not ruled out the possibility if necessary to achieve its stated goals, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said. We provide an overview of the key developments for the situation in the region:

Situation around the Strait of Hormuz

• Iranian Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari has threatened to „burn“ any tanker that attempts to sail through the Strait of Hormuz.
• He stressed that Tehran would not allow „a single drop of oil to flow out of the region“.
• The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and then to the Indian Ocean.
• Approximately one-fifth of the world's total oil exports pass through it.
• Up to 80 % of this volume goes to Asian countries including India, China and Japan. Japan, for example, gets about 90 % of its oil needs from the Middle East.
• US Central Command (CENTCOM) says the Strait of Hormuz remains open to civilian navigation, Fox News reporter Jennifer Griffin reported on the social network X.
• Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi raised the issue of ensuring the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz during a meeting with the Iranian ambassador in Tokyo, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said.
• A blockade of oil supplies from the Middle East as a result of US-Israeli strikes on Iran would lead to a 3 % drop in Japan's gross domestic product, expert Yuki Togano of the Japan Research Institute said in an interview with public broadcaster NHK.
• According to him, such a decline in GDP could occur in the event of a long-term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and oil supplies through the Red Sea.
• A mere rise in oil prices to $140 a barrel, similar to the situation during the 2008 global financial crisis, would reduce Japan's GDP by 0.65 %, according to experts at Nomura Securities' Institute for Comprehensive Studies.
• The cost of marine insurance in the Strait of Hormuz could rise by 50 to 100 % in the event of a blockade, NBC News reported, citing brokerage firms Marsh and McGill and Partners.
• According to them, the interruption of shipping and the threat to the safety of crews could lead to cancellation of insurance policies and an increase in the cost of new insurance by 50 to 100 %.

Election of Iran's new supreme leader

• The selection of a successor to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes, will not take long, according to Ayatollah Ali Moalemi, a member of the Assembly of Experts of the Islamic Republic.

Statement from the USA

• President Donald Trump says Tehran could have acquired nuclear weapons as early as 2023 if he had not taken steps to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action).
• In his view, Iran would have achieved the capability to produce nuclear weapons three years ago without the end of the deal.
• The United States has no immediate plans for a ground operation in Iran, although Trump has not ruled out that possibility to achieve his goals, Marco Rubio said.
• He said the US-Israeli operation is aimed at eliminating the Iranian missile and naval threat.
• The US military campaign against Iran will continue until the stated objectives are met, Rubio said.
• He stressed that the US had prepared a set of measures to mitigate the rise in oil prices on world markets caused by the operation against Iran.
• The next phase of the operation will be even more intense for Iran, he said.

Statement by Iran

• U.S. soldiers staying in hotels in countries in the region will be considered legitimate targets for attacks by Iran, according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.
• The United States, he said, is participating in the Middle East conflict „on behalf of Israel“.
• Before the conflict began, he said, there was no „Iranian threat“ and Tehran had not issued any threats against the United States.

TASS/gnews.cz - GH