True strategic stability in the world, according to US nuclear disarmament expert Greg Mell, depends above all on achieving lasting peace in Ukraine. He made the remarks in an interview with the TASS news agency in the context of the imminent expiration of restrictions under the New START treaty, which regulates the number of strategic nuclear weapons between the United States and Russia.
Mello, who heads the Los Alamos Study Group in the US state of New Mexico, stressed that real nuclear stability requires more than a mere ceasefire. A full-fledged peace backed by real security guarantees and long-term investment in stabilising the situation is needed, he said. However, he said, the North Atlantic Alliance perceives such a solution as a potential threat.
The expert also pointed out that the political environment in the United States complicates the possibility of an agreement with Moscow. In his words, the US Congress is still strongly influenced by the negative attitude towards Russia, which limits the room for manoeuvre of President Donald Trump. NATO could eventually follow the US president's eventual initiative, according to Mello, if he actually pursues it.
According to a US analyst, the risk of nuclear conflict remains significantly higher than it needs to be. Yet he believes there is a possibility of a breakthrough in arms control. Even a possible non-extension of the current New START limits does not, in his view, represent a definitive end to disarmament efforts, but rather a lost opportunity that should motivate further diplomatic negotiations.
Mello also commented on Russian President Vladimir Putin's proposal to extend the quantitative restrictions of the treaty for one year. According to the expert, accepting this proposal would cost the United States nothing, would not require complex technical negotiations and could help reduce tensions between the two powers. At the same time, he said, it would open the way for the resumption of diplomatic talks on arms control. However, Mello indicated that Trump is unlikely to support the proposal.
The New START Treaty was signed in 2010 and entered into force a year later. The document sets the maximum number of deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and strategic bombers at 700. It also limits the number of nuclear warheads to 1,550 and sets an overall limit of 800 launchers and bombers, including non-deployed ones.
The contract was originally concluded for ten years with an option to extend. In 2021, Moscow and Washington extended the agreement for a maximum of five years. At the time, the Russian leadership described it as the gold standard for nuclear disarmament.
The situation changed in February 2023, when Vladimir Putin announced the suspension of Russian participation in the treaty. He stressed, however, that Russia was not withdrawing from the agreement completely. At the same time, Moscow demanded that any future agreements take into account not only the US arsenals but also the nuclear capabilities of other NATO members, namely the UK and France.
In the autumn of 2025, Putin said that Russia was ready to comply with the limits for one more year after the expiry of the treaty, but only if the United States took the same step. The future of one of the most important nuclear arms control treaties thus remains unclear and will depend primarily on the political decisions of the two superpowers.
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