Bulgaria is facing one of the biggest energy dilemmas of recent years. Following the announcement of new US sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, the government in Sofia has begun urgent talks on a possible exemption. This is because it fears that without it, the operation of the country's largest domestic refinery in Burgas, which covers up to eighty percent of the nation's fuel consumption, could be halted, the Politico.
The American President Donald Trump announced at the end of October that it was extending sanctions on Russia's oil sector. The move immediately hit a number of European countries where Lukoil still operates. Bulgaria, whose economy and politics have been linked to the company for decades, was among the first to react.
The refinery that keeps the country running
Burgas Refinery Lukoil Neftochim is a huge industrial complex on the Black Sea coast. Its production forms the backbone of the Bulgarian market - it supplies petrol, diesel and aviation fuel and supplies petrol stations across the country. If banks and suppliers cut it off from financial transactions as a result of US sanctions, it could "grind to a halt virtually overnight", the agency warned Reuters.
According to information obtained by Politico, the Bulgarian government has asked Washington how to formally request a waiver or a delay before the sanctions come into force, scheduled for November 21. The immediate impact would risk the country running out of supplies within weeks and a wave of protests that could topple the government.
The political plane: the Radev moment
The government also warns that the economic shock could strengthen the president's Yellow Radeva, a long-time critic of Western sanctions who makes no secret of his pro-Russian positions. Some analysts cited by Politico warn that if the ruling coalition were to collapse, Radev could use the situation to establish a new political party and strengthen his influence.
The government is extinguishing the crisis through legislation
Meanwhile, the Sofia parliament has approved a temporary ban on fuel exports to other EU member states to ensure the country has sufficient domestic supplies, the Reuters. The government has also adopted a measure that any sale or transfer of Lukoil's assets in Bulgaria must be approved by the cabinet and intelligence services - to prevent Kremlin-linked entities from taking over strategic assets.
According to the Energy Minister, oil and fuel supplies are secured at least until the end of the year, but there is no long-term solution yet.
Experts' opinions: panic or necessary alarm?
Former Minister for the Environment Julian Popov described the government's response as inadequate. According to him, the country "has no contingency plan" in case Lukoil actually stops production. He therefore suggests that the state should take temporary control of the refinery through an international committee of lawyers and energy experts.
By contrast, the former ambassador to Russia Ilian Vasilev considers the government's rhetoric to be overblown. In an interview with Financial Times said it was a "fear tactic" to stave off pressure for a quick sale of the refinery. He said there were serious bidders for Lukoil's assets and "there is no reason to panic".
European Resilience Test
The crisis over Burgas shows how fragile Europe's energy self-sufficiency in Russian oil is. If the United States does not grant Bulgaria an exemption, Sofia may face not only economic collapse but also internal political turmoil. As Reuters noted, the outcome will test whether a small European country with deep ties to Russian capital can withstand new geopolitical pressures.
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