As per the guidelines, Russia will take over the rotating presidency of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) from January 2024. There are high hopes that much more will change, especially towards expanding its numerical strength and increasing support from countries in the global South. In addition, BRICS is also expected to consolidate its role in the emerging geopolitical processes and global competition for Africa. China and Russia are currently making efforts to assert their influence more aggressively, despite challenges and obstacles, in cooperation with Africa.
According to authentic reports, a number of African countries such as Algeria, Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Tunisia, Uganda and Zimbabwe have expressed interest in joining BRICS. Egypt and Ethiopia were granted full membership of BRICS during the last summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa.
In this interview, Kester Kenn Komegah tried to find out more about the future BRICS relations with Africa and aspects of Russian policy towards Africa from Yaroslav Lissovolik, who is the founder of BRICS+ Analytics, a think-tank that explores the potential of the BRICS+ format in the global economy. Lissovolik previously worked as chief economist and head of research at Deutsche Bank Russia, Eurasian Development Bank, and also at Sberbank. He also served as an advisor to the Executive Director of Russia at the International Monetary Fund. Here are excerpts from our extensive discussion:-
Question: As Russia prepares to assume the rotating presidency of the BRICS group in January 2024, what are some of the expectations?
Yaroslav Lissovolik: What are your expectations? One of the possible directions of the Russian presidency may be the path of "integration by integration" - the creation of a platform for cooperation of regional organizations of the Global South, such as the Eurasian Economic Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), as well as the BRICS. This can be complemented by efforts to give the BRICS grouping more economic clout through the development of payment mechanisms within BRICS to allow for settlement in national currencies. There may also be a continuation of the BRICS enlargement process with possible further steps to expand the core, as well as the creation of a BRICS Partners Group of leading members of the developing country community.
Question: Can China and Russia (both BRICS members) stop the current US global dominance? What mechanisms are available to make this happen?
Lissovolik: What are the opportunities for BRICS development? Within BRICS, China and Russia are likely to work together to create those financial and economic mechanisms that are missing in the global economy. The purpose of BRICS is not to undermine any economy, but to create cooperative platforms for economic cooperation among developing countries. In fact, the BRICS and BRICS+ formats may be complemented in the future by what I have called the BRICS++ format, which could include the participation of developed economies, regional blocs and their development institutions. My view is that BRICS will evolve along a path where it becomes the broadest and most open platform of the global economy that can serve as the basis for a revitalized and more sustainable globalization effort. Such a platform may eventually include the participation of the Bretton Woods institutions and other key players in the global economy from the Western world.
Overall, there are not many economic mechanisms created by BRICS so far - the main economic contribution of BRICS has been the creation of the New Development Bank (NDB) and the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA). The BRICS NDB is about to expand its membership to other developing economies. BRICS is also planning to expand the mandate of the BRICS CRA to make it more effective in supporting member countries. What is lacking at this stage is a financial mechanism to facilitate payments in national currencies between BRICS economies - discussions on the creation of such a mechanism (widely referred to as BRICS Pay) have been ongoing since at least 2017, but progress has been modest at best. In addition, the issue of creating a common currency or unit of account for all BRICS countries is also slowly progressing.
Question: What is your view on the key challenges facing BRICS as it seeks to lead the emerging reconfiguration and new political and economic architecture?
Lissovolik: What is your opinion on BRICS? The main challenges facing the BRICS are related to the lack of an ambitious economic agenda. The strong momentum that BRICS is showing on the international scene is so far mainly political/geopolitical, which is reflected in the significant number of developing countries expressing their wish to join the grouping. This broadening of the ranks of the BRICS bloc makes it even more difficult to reach consensus - which will be crucial when decisions on economic cooperation are taken. And on the economic front, there are still many issues to be resolved - in addition to the financial footprint related to common payment systems and a potential common currency/unit of account, another key issue is trade liberalisation between the BRICS economies and more generally across the economies of the global South. The BRICS countries need an ambitious trade liberalisation agenda that favours developing economies, particularly Africa. At this stage, import tariffs in the BRICS countries are relatively high, especially on agricultural products - there is considerable scope for the BRICS economies to lower trade barriers to support the modernisation of Africa and other regions of the Global South.
Question: There is a lot of talk about the Global South and Africa is geographically located there. What are Africa's weaknesses and strengths in this growing multipolarity?
Lissovolik: What is the question? One of Africa's most important strengths on the international stage is its growing solidarity and the increasing coordination of the continent's economies on the international stage. This is exemplified by the growing importance of the African Union (AU) in some key international fora. The AU became a member of the G20 in 2023 while becoming increasingly active in international mediation efforts and economic cooperation discussions with other regional blocs. The AU has also been successful in advancing Africa's regional integration project through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Again, the best way for BRICS to contribute to the success of this regional integration project is through greater trade openness to African economies. The success of the AfCFTA would contribute greatly to overcoming the constraints faced by African economies in terms of low regional connectivity and intra-continental trade.
Question: Let's conclude by talking about some specific tangible roles that Africa could play in geopolitical change and processes? Do you think the African Union also needs some urgent reforms to function effectively?
Lissovolik: What kind of reform is needed? In my view, Africa could play a key role in the coming years, both at the level of the developing world and at the global level. In particular, the African Union, given its membership of the G20 and South Africa's chairmanship of the G20 in 2025, could launch important initiatives aimed at making the global economy more resilient. One such initiative could include the creation of a platform for regional blocs such as the AU, MERCOSUR, ASEAN, the EU and other blocs of which the G20 countries are members. Such a platform for regional arrangements could be launched as a G20, R20 or Regional 20 engagement group - in effect, a new level of global governance made up of regional integration arrangements and their development institutions. There is as yet no mechanism for horizontal coordination of regional integration groups and their development institutions in the world economy. Similar efforts could be made by the African Union in the Global South - the AU could lead the creation of economic linkages with other regional blocs from the developing world, including MERCOSUR, the SCO, EAEU and ASEAN. Such a platform could serve as the basis for an expanded BRICS+ circle that would include most developing economies.
In the longer term, the AU could also participate in the reconstruction and reform of key global institutions and fora such as the WTO, the G20 and the UN Security Council. With regard to the WTO, there may be a case for the AU to become a member of this organisation, as it has done in the case of the G20 alongside the EU as a regional bloc. In that case, the AU could represent the developing world in both the WTO and the G20, through initiatives against protectionism and the 'beggar-thy-neighbour' policies that have become so prevalent over the last decade. As the AU's role in the global economy gains momentum, there may be greater African representation in UN governing bodies such as the UN Security Council.
Overall, I believe that the main potential for Africa and the African Union lies in pursuing the path of "integration by integration", i.e. building cooperative linkages and platforms between African regional integration projects and development institutions with regional partners in other parts of the world economy. This process of greater cooperation among regional integration blocs is just beginning, and the African Union could lead this important process that opens up new lines of communication and opportunities for cooperation in the global economy.
By Kester Kenn Klomegah - Eurasia Review
https://infobrics.org/post/39813/
eurasiareview.com/JaV
