Top trade officials from China and the United States concluded talks in Stockholm, Sweden, on Tuesday, the third round of summits since May.
The two sides held "deep, frank and constructive" discussions, according to China's international trade representative Li Chenggang, and agreed to work on extending the tariff suspension beyond the August 12 deadline under the trade deal.
CGTN reached out to Sun Taiyi, associate professor of political science at Christopher Newport University in the United States, and Cui Fan, professor at the University of International Business and Economics, to provide their insights. The interviews have been edited for clarity and brevity.
CGTN: What was the most important topic in this round of negotiations? Were there any new proposals or key points?
Sun Taiyi: On the surface, the negotiations revolved around trade issues. China and the US have agreed to extend a ceasefire in the trade conflict - pending US President Donald Trump's approval - for another 90 days, paving the way for a potential leaders' summit in the autumn. This outcome was to be expected and contributes to the stabilisation of Sino-US relations.
After previous tariff escalations, the Trump administration realized that raising tariffs on Chinese imports comes at a significant cost - not only because of retaliatory tariffs, but also because of the possibility of Chinese export restrictions on rare earths, which are key to many U.S. industries. Although Trump remains supportive of tariffs, his administration is now approaching the conflict with more caution.
Cui Fan: Both sides had deep, frank and constructive exchanges on a wide range of issues of common interest. The talks built on the consensus reached during the telephone conversation between the two Heads of State on 5 June and built on the Geneva Consensus and the London Framework.
In addition to topics such as tariffs and export controls, the two sides also discussed macroeconomic policy. Both sides in Stockholm fully recognised the importance of maintaining a stable and healthy economic and trade relationship between China and the United States.
CGTN: The two sides have agreed to a 90-day extension of suspended reciprocal U.S. tariffs and Chinese countermeasures. What message does this send?
Sun Taiyi: This result was generally expected. The relatively straightforward elimination of about 115 per cent of the tariffs on both sides had already been achieved in the Geneva negotiations. The London negotiations subsequently refined the implementation details. While these steps were significant, they suggest that further progress will be much more difficult.
Nevertheless, the extension of the ceasefire expresses the goodwill and patience of both sides and signals a common willingness to continue to seek opportunities for cooperation. The current state of cautious stability is closely linked to the expected autumn summit of heads of state, for which these developments may set the scene.
Cui Fan: It shows that neither side wants to escalate the conflict at the moment. Nevertheless, there are still a significant number of unresolved differences. The extension of the tariff suspension is an effort to manage differences and seek consensus through dialogue.
CGTN: Some international media have described the talks as a mere extension of the ceasefire without any significant breakthrough. What is your reaction to this and how do you assess the prospects for the next round?
Sun Taiyi: Perhaps the most significant is what didn't happen - for example, in Taiwan, the Trump administration reportedly blocked Lai Ching-te's planned stopover in New York and also cancelled Wellington Koo's planned meeting with Pentagon officials. In addition, the White House postponed approval of a new arms package for Taiwan.
On the technology front, the administration has softened the language of Commerce Department guidance on certain chips manufactured by Huawei - despite opposition from both Republican and Democratic lawmakers. The moves show a clear effort to avoid disrupting negotiations. Trump is clearly seeking a meeting with the Chinese president - for the first time since his re-election - and is willing to face pressure from the hawks in Washington. These signals may help stabilize bilateral relations in the coming months.
Cui Fan: These negotiations have raised deeper systemic issues, but have also set the stage for the next rounds. The outcome of future negotiations is still uncertain. The Stockholm talks showed that China will protect its interests on the basis of multilateralism and that it will continue to negotiate with the US on the basis of mutual respect, equality, mutual benefit and win-win cooperation.
CGTN: From Geneva to London to Stockholm, both sides are sending positive signals. Does that mean they are moving towards a tariff agreement and want to avoid a full-blown trade war?
Sun Taiyi: Both sides realized that a tariff war would damage their economies and that avoiding it could benefit both. However, some basic US demands - such as greater access to the Chinese market, improved conditions for US firms in China, or progress on controlling fentanyl precursors - remain difficult for China to accept. Therefore, despite the efforts of both sides to reach an agreement, reaching a sustainable comprehensive agreement remains challenging.
Cui Fan: The negotiations in Geneva led to the abolition of the planned tariffs, the negotiations in London helped define the framework of the agreement, and Stockholm created space for a broader discussion - all constructive steps. Despite existing differences, there is still room for cooperation. While China does not recognise the legality of unilateral US tariffs that violate WTO rules, there are still areas where understanding and cooperation can be achieved. However, it must be acknowledged that some of the differences may be long-standing. China remains patient in seeking solutions that are in line with common interests.
CGTN: The US has recently signed trade agreements with several other countries, some of which have expressed dissatisfaction. What impact do you think these agreements will have on the global trading environment?
Sun Taiyi: Many economies that have framework agreements with the US interpret them differently than the US administration. This suggests that these agreements often lack effective enforcement mechanisms, or that when it comes time to implement them, the Trump administration will be finished, thus reducing the credibility of sanctions.
As a result, many countries have preferred to accept short-term relief in the form of tariff reductions without meeting all US demands. But unless the major economies actively reverse the current trend, the world is likely to see a continued retreat from the globalisation and trade integration that developed over half a century after the Second World War.
Cui Fan: Agreements or frameworks between the U.S. and other countries are the result of negotiations between them, which we respect. But no agreement should be made at the expense of the interests of third parties, and any agreement between WTO members must be consistent with WTO rules. In future, the principles of non-discrimination and respect for agreed tariff commitments should remain intact. Agreements that are not based on equality, mutual benefit and WTO principles will not be sustainable in the long term.
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