The EU's Climate Protection Authority has confirmed that 2024 will not only be the hottest year on record, but also the first calendar year when the average global temperature exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Scientists from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) - an EU programme run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) - have tracked key climate indicators and documented unprecedented daily, monthly and annual temperature records through 2024.
Man-made climate change remains the primary driver of extreme air and sea surface temperatures, but other factors, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, have also contributed to the unusual temperatures observed throughout the year.
Europe's record average temperature of 10.69 °C was 1.47 °C warmer than the average for the 1991-2020 reference period and 0.28 °C warmer than the previous record set in 2020.
Europe also experienced its warmest spring (March-May) and summer (June-August), with spring mean temperature 1.50 degrees above the seasonal average for the period 1991-2020 and summer temperature 1.54 degrees above this average.
Globally, this year was the warmest on record, according to records going back to 1850. The global average of 15.10 degrees was 0.72 degrees warmer than the 1991-2020 average and 0.12 degrees warmer than the previous warmest year, 2023, meaning it was 1.60 degrees warmer than the 1850-1900 temperature estimate, referred to as the pre-industrial level.
Why is the 1.5 degree limit important?
Scientists and policymakers have set a 1.5 degree increase as a crucial benchmark. As part of the 2016 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to keep the average temperature rise well below 2 degrees and committed to try to limit the rise to 1.5 degrees. These commitments were confirmed at COP 26, 27 and 28.
Although the World Meteorological Organization does not condemn monthly and annual exceedances of the 1.5 degree threshold as failures under the Paris Agreement, arguing that long-term temperature changes should be assessed over a time horizon of at least 20 years, this level is still considered significant
Not only was 2024 the first calendar year to record more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, but also 11 out of 12 months - and if we look further back in time, all months since July 2023, with the exception of July 2024, have exceeded that level.
Every month from January to June 2024 was warmer than the corresponding month in any previous recorded year. Every month from July to December was the second warmest for that month after 2023 - with the exception of August, which matched August 2023 as the warmest.
In the longer term, each of the last 10 years (2015-2024) has been one of the 10 warmest on record. Zooming in on the daily scale, July 22 set a new record for daily average global temperature - 17.16 degrees.
"We are now teetering on the brink of exceeding the 1.5 degree threshold defined in the Paris Agreement, and the average of the last two years is already above that threshold," said Samantha Burgess, ECMWF's Strategic Climate Lead.
"These high global temperatures, coupled with record global levels of water vapour in the atmosphere in 2024, have meant unprecedented heatwaves and torrential rains causing suffering for millions of people."
"All internationally compiled global temperature datasets show that 2024 was the warmest year since records began in 1850," said Carlo Buontempo, director of ECMWF's Copernicus Climate Change Service.
"Humanity is responsible for its own destiny, but the way we respond to the climate challenge should be evidence-based. The future is in our hands - quick and decisive action can still change the trajectory of our future climate."
CGTN / gnews-jav
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