Ahead of the European Parliament elections, many different polls have appeared. There may be quite a few that have also reached one post-election, actually "unofficial". It was not done by any of the reputable companies. In fact, it was not even done by any non-renowned company, or indeed by any company at all.
Video game designer, screenwriter, director, co-founder and creative director of Warhorse Studios Daniel Vávra posted the results of the survey in his Facebook bubble. 7067 people voted. That's a lot. The reputable companies mentioned work with a sample of around a thousand respondents. However, he called his bubble "as expected, right-wing and conservative as it has been so far." Thus, the results cannot be taken as completely objective and representative. Vávra was led to make this claim by the answers to two questions: who did you vote for in 2021? Who are you voting for now in the European elections? Even comparing these elections, we are already on a bit of thin ice...
Approximately 28 % responded to the first question by saying that someone from the government coalitions - the stronger SPOLU: ODS (16.3 %), TOP 09 (1.2 %) and KDU-ČSL (0.7 %) and the weaker Pirates (5.9 %) with STAN (4 %). The next ranking was Svobodní (14.4 %), SPD (13.5 %), ANO (11.2 %) and Trikolora (9.9 %).
And how is it this year? This year, the Motorists have 39.9 %, the Free Party 11.3 %, the SPD and Tricolour 8.9 % and the STATION 7.4 %. SPOLU only got 6.2 % this year, STAN 1.8 %, Pirates 2.4 %. So the ruling coalition total 10.4 %. This is almost a threefold drop. It should be added that the "Vávra bubble" is really a bit different from the voters' turnout, because you must have missed certain three letters here so far: two percent of the "bubblers" voted for ANO this year, and 6.3 % for PRO.
Vávra also evaluated the voter transfers for the individual candidates. He distinguished who he thought voted for STACILO! as follows: In 2021, this year's STAČILO! voters voted 26.7 % ANO, 22.5 % SPD, 14.3 % Tricolor, 5 % Free Bloc, and 5 % Svobodné. A further 8.4 % actually did not change their minds and voted for the Communist Party in 2021.
Vávra also has an answer to who voted for the Oath and the Motorists: 17.9 % are former ODS voters, 14.3 % are Svobodné voters, 12.2 % are ANO voters, 11.3 % are non-voters. 10.8 % SPD and 10.1 % Tricolour (author's note - the latter ran in a Triple Coalition with Svobodni and Soukromisty at the time). Furthermore, 3.7 % of STAN and 3.5 % of Pirates!
Who did Vávra say stole the SPD's votes? A third (31.9 %) switched to the Motorists, 12.4 % switched to STAČILO!, 11.6 % switched to PRO and 6.1 1 % switched to Svobodné.
Vávra went on to say that the SPD must have taken voters from someone as well: 10 % to ANO, 7 % to Svobodným, 4 % to ODS. Compared to other parties, the TOTAL did not win over anyone more than 8 %. The Pirates and STAN received the most (8 % each) and 3 % for Svobodní.
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