According to Median's election model for September, five political parties and movements would make it into the Chamber of Deputies. ANO has the highest voter preference (33 %). This is followed by ODS (11.5 %), STAN (11 %), Pirates (8.5 %) and SPD (7 %). TOP 09, KSČM and Přísaha would not get into the Chamber of Deputies in September. They have identically 4.5 %. The parties of the current governing coalition (ODS + TOP 09 + KDU-ČSL + STAN) have a combined support of 29 % potential voters. Without the formation of pre-election coalitions, they would have won 64 seats. The willingness to participate in the elections has fallen again (54.5 %).
According to its statement, 46.5 % people would definitely participate in the elections to the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Republic in September 2024. Another 8 % respondents are considering participation. The willingness to participate in the elections has dropped again compared to the last survey. The decline in turnout is largely saturated by the group of 2021 TOTAL voters who would definitely not participate in the election in 31 %.
Certainly 40.5 % of those polled would not go to the PSP elections, rather 5 % would.
The voter turnout in the October 2021 House of Representatives election was 65.43 %.
Compared to the 2021 election, fewer voters would turn out to vote in September 2024, by more than 10 percentage points.
33 % voters would vote for ANO in September. ODS would finish second with 11.5 %. The mayors (11 %) are now third. The Pirates have 8.5 %. The SPD (7 %) would still make it into the chamber.
Below the 5% threshold needed to enter the Chamber are TOP 09, KSČM, Přísaha (4.5 %), SOCDEM (4 %) and Motorists (3.5 %). The Greens, Lidovci and PRO 2022 have the same 2 %.
The ANO movement is the most common choice of people aged 35 and over. Almost half of the voters aged 65 and over would vote for it. It also ranks first among all educational groups except for the university educated, where it is second only to ODS.
ODS has the majority of its voters in the 35-44 age group. More than a third of all its voters are employees with higher incomes.
National support for the Pirates is gradually declining. The difference between the national average and the results in the regional elections is due to the fact that the Pirates are supported by voters under 30 and residents of Prague (there were no regional elections in Prague). Voters under the age of 30 make up almost 40 % of all Pirate voters, but only 24 % of voters from this age group turned out for the regional elections.
In a hypothetical September election, ANO would win 86 seats, ODS 34, STAN 30, Pirates 25 and SPD 25. A coalition of ANO + SPD would have a majority of 111 MPs. A two-party coalition could also be formed between ANO and the Mayors (116 seats) and ANO and the Pirates (111 seats). The current governing coalition (ODS, TOP 09, KDU-ČSL, STAN) would have 64 seats. However, the seat gains do not take into account possible pre-election mergers of parties.
The electoral potential of ANO has increased (42 %), but its electoral core remains constant (25 %). The second highest electoral potential is again held by the Mayors (24 %). The potential of ODS is 20.5 %, and the potential of the Pirates has again increased to 20 %. The potential of the SPD is 11 %.
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