WASHINGTON - The weapons will likely initially be used against Russian and North Korean troops defending Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of western Russia, officials said. Mr. Biden's decision is a significant change in U.S. policy. The decision has divided his advisers, and his change comes two months before President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office, having promised to curb further support for Ukraine.
Allowing the Ukrainians to use long-range missiles, known as Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, came in response to Russia's surprise decision to engage North Korean troops in combat, officials said. Mr. Biden began easing restrictions on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons on Russian territory after Russia in May launched a cross-border attack toward Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city. To help the Ukrainians defend Kharkiv, Mr. Biden allowed them to use High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) missiles, which have a range of about 50 miles, against Russian forces just across the border. However, Mr. Biden did not allow the Ukrainians to use the longer-range ATACMS missile launchers, which have a range of about 190 miles, to defend Kharkiv.
Although officials said they do not expect the change to fundamentally alter the course of the war, one of the goals of the policy change, they said, is to send a signal to the North Koreans that their forces are vulnerable and that they should not send more of them. The officials said that while the Ukrainians are likely to use the missiles first against Russian and North Korean troops threatening Ukrainian forces in Kursk, Mr. Biden could authorize them to use the weapons elsewhere. Some U.S. officials have said they fear that Ukraine's use of missiles across the border could prompt Russian President Vladimir V. Putin to retaliate with force against the United States and its coalition partners.
However, other US officials have said they consider these concerns to be overblown. The Russian military is launching a large-scale assault by an estimated 50,000 troops, including North Korean troops, on entrenched Ukrainian positions in Kursk with the aim of recapturing all of the Russian territory the Ukrainians seized in August. The Ukrainians could use ATACMS missiles to hit Russian and North Korean troop concentrations, key pieces of military equipment, logistics hubs, ammunition depots, and supply lines deep inside Russia. This could help the Ukrainians blunt the effectiveness of a Russian-North Korean attack. The question of whether to arm Ukraine with long-range ATACMS weapons has been a particularly sensitive topic since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Some Pentagon officials were opposed to providing them to the Ukrainians because they said the U.S. military has limited supplies. Some White House officials feared that Putin would expand the war if the missiles were provided to the Ukrainians. Advocates of a more aggressive stance toward Moscow say Mr. Biden and his advisers have been too easily intimidated by Mr. Putin's hostile rhetoric, and argue that the administration's incremental approach to arming the Ukrainians has put them at a disadvantage on the battlefield. Supporters of Mr. Biden's approach say he has largely succeeded in averting a violent Russian response. Allowing long-range strikes on Russian territory with U.S. missiles could change that equation.
In August, the Ukrainians launched their own cross-border assault into the Kursk region, where they seized part of Russian territory. Since then, U.S. officials have become increasingly concerned about the state of the Ukrainian military, which has been depleted by simultaneous Russian attacks in the east of the country, in Kharkiv and now in Kursk. The introduction of more than 10,000 North Korean troops and Mr. Biden's response come as Mr. Trump prepares for his reentry into office with the stated goal of ending the war quickly. Mr Trump has so far said little about how he would settle the conflict. But Vice President-elect JD Vance has outlined a plan that would allow the Russians to keep the Ukrainian territory their forces have seized.
The Ukrainians hope that in any future negotiations they could exchange all the Russian-held territory in Kursk for Ukrainian territory held by Russia. If the Russian attack on Ukrainian forces in Kursk is successful, Kiev could end up with little Russian territory to offer Moscow in exchange. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has long sought permission from the United States and its coalition partners to use long-range missiles to strike Russian territory.
The British and French militaries have provided the Ukrainians with a limited number of Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, which have a range of about 155 miles, less than the U.S. missile system. While British and French officials expressed support for Mr. Zelensky's request, they were reluctant to allow the Ukrainians to begin using their missiles on Russian territory unless Mr. Biden agreed to let the Ukrainians do the same with ATACMS. Mr. Biden was more risk-averse than his British and French counterparts, and his senior advisers were divided on how to proceed.
Some have relied on a recent U.S. intelligence assessment that warned that Putin could respond to the use of remote ATACMS on Russian territory by ordering the Russian military or its spy agencies to retaliate, potentially with lethal force, against the United States and its European allies. The assessment warned of several possible Russian responses, which included intensifying arson and sabotage actions targeting facilities in Europe, as well as potentially lethal attacks on U.S. and European military bases.
Officials said Mr Biden was persuaded to make the change in part by the sheer audacity of Russia's decision to rush North Korean troops to Ukrainian lines. They said he was also persuaded by fears that Russian strike forces would be able to overwhelm Ukrainian troops in Kursk if they were not allowed to defend themselves with long-range weapons. U.S. officials said they did not believe the decision would change the course of the war. But they said Mr. Biden judged that the potential benefits - Ukraine would be able to achieve certain high-value goals it would otherwise be unable to do, and the United States would be able to send a signal to North Korea that it would pay a significant price for its involvement - outweighed the risks of escalation.
Mr Biden faced a similar dilemma a year ago when US intelligence agencies learned that the North Koreans would supply Russia with long-range ballistic missiles. In that case, Mr. Biden agreed to supply several hundred long-range ATACMS missiles to the Ukrainians for use on Ukrainian sovereign territory, including the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula. These were in addition to the more limited supplies of Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles that the Ukrainians received from the UK and France. The Ukrainians have since used many of these missiles in a coordinated campaign of strikes against Russian military targets in Crimea and the Black Sea.
As a result, it is unclear how many missiles the Ukrainians have left in their arsenal to use in the Kursk region.
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