Today the war in Ukraine is over, at least in a sense. Bloody fighting between exhausted armies will continue to barely move the frozen front lines. Russian missile and drone strikes will continue to rumble through Ukrainian cities and terrorize their inhabitants. Bold, covert Ukrainian strikes will reach deep across the Russian border.
But a new and likely final chapter in the nearly three-year conflict began today with a confluence of clear signals from the United States that it will no longer support Kiev's goals in the war, which is anything but Ukraine's failure to regain its sovereign territory and achieve the most desirable security guarantees. Ukrainians watched with concern as Donald Trump retakes power because they knew of his longstanding bow to Russian President Vladimir Putin and heard his promise to end the conflict "within 24 hours," which always seemed like a way to codify Russia's war gains. Although Trump has not fulfilled that promise, he has made no secret of his desire to bring a swift end to the fighting.
And when he inserted himself into the conflict today, he did so in a telling way: he called Putin, which the White House framed as the beginning of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
"Each of us spoke of the strengths of our nations and the great benefits we will one day reap from working together," Trump wrote after the phone call on the social network Truth. "But first, as we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths that are occurring in the war with Russia/Ukraine. President Putin even used my very strong campaign slogan 'COMMON SENSE'." Only then did Trump call the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky"to inform him of the conversation".
Trump and his top advisers have rewarded Putin with the patience to continue the conflict until the US election in November, which has likely allowed him to strike a deal closer to his vision as Russia and Ukraine finally consider ending the war by agreement. Prior to his phone call with Zelensky, Trump wrote on Truth Social that he would tell Zelensky that he and Putin had agreed that "our respective teams will begin negotiations immediately," pushing Ukraine to the brink of its own war. In his own social media post, Zelensky later described his call with Trump as "meaningful." But Trump did not promise Zelensky the same meeting he offered Putin; Zelensky will meet with Vice President J.D. Vance at a Munich security conference this week.
Taken together, today's events have reinforced the fact that Ukraine's influence is waning. Just as Trump and Putin were talking, the US defence secretary said Pete Hegseth speaking at NATO headquarters, said that achieving Ukraine's main goal in the war - restoring its borders to the way they were before Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 - is "unrealistic". "The pursuit of this illusory goal will only prolong the war and cause further suffering," Hegseth said in Brussels.
Hegseth also took the opportunity to declare that the Trump administration does not support Ukraine's desire to join NATO under any peace plan, a position Putin has long opposed and does not want to bring the alliance to its borders. And Hegseth called on Europe to take more responsibility for its own defense, saying it should no longer rely on Washington as it has in the past.
This view has alarmed Kiev, which has relied on the United States for much of the financial and military assistance that has enabled it to repel the Russian invasion. "There are voices saying that Europe could offer security guarantees without the Americans, and I always say no,"Zelensky said a few days ago. "Security guarantees without America are not real security guarantees."
The war is far from going the way Putin initially imagined, but it is now clearly gaining momentum. The Kremlin this week rejected Zelensky's proposal to swap territory seized by Ukraine during the counter-offensive in Russia's Kursk region for some of the territory that Putin's war machine has gained since the invasion began. Trump told reporters at the White House late this afternoon that it was "unlikely that Ukraine will get all of its territory back." A Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Peskov told reporters today that Putin told Trump about "the need to address the root causes of the conflict" - a signal that Moscow will not agree to a simple ceasefire in Ukraine and will instead demand broader concessions from the West before it stops fighting.
The fact that the presidential phone call took place at all is a significant milestone for Putin, signalling the end of the West's efforts to isolate him. President Joe Biden cut off contacts with his Russian counterpart after the February 2022 invasion, and his administration has directed tens of billions of dollars in financial aid and weapons to Ukraine. But the new administration has signaled that it will cut aid to Kiev. Trump aides said the president sees an opportunity to end the conflict and try to stabilize relations with Moscow. To that end, a prisoner swap was brokered yesterday, bringing back to the US a teacher, Marc Fogel, who spent three years in a Russian labour camp.
Trump also wrote on Truth Social that he and Putin "agreed to cooperate, and to cooperate very closely, including visits to each other's nations". In March 2023, the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for Putin's arrest following an investigation into war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Ukraine. An invitation to the United States - and potentially the White House - would rightly be seen as Trump welcoming Putin back into the good graces of the democratic world, even after his unwarranted invasion of a sovereign neighbor.
Trump told reporters that he might meet Putin first in a neutral location, citing Saudi Arabia as one possibility. A possible visit to Moscow - an invitation confirmed by Kremlin spokesman Peskov - would also be Trump's first visit as president and another notable moment in his long entanglement with Russia. (The last US president to visit Russia was Barack Obama at the G20 summit in 2013).
After U.S. intelligence agencies concluded that Russia interfered in Trump's favor in the 2016 election, his first administration nonetheless took a hard line against Moscow at times. But Trump has often sided with Putin, including at their 2018 summit in Helsinki. At a joint press conference there, I asked Trump who he trusted regarding election meddling - Putin or his intelligence services - and the US president made it clear that he sided with his Russian counterpart.
He seems ready to do it again. When Trump named his negotiating team with Russia, he mentioned Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, his national security adviser Michael Waltz, and his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. He did not, however, mention Keith Kellogg, the retired general he appointed as envoy for Russia and Ukraine. Kellogg generally takes a more aggressive stance toward Russia than Trump and is unpopular in Moscow.
The Senate yesterday confirmed former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard as Trump's new director of national intelligence. Gabbard has faced criticism for her past statements about Russia, and Democrats have accused her of adopting Kremlin talking points, including when she suggested shortly after the war began that Moscow was provoked into invading Ukraine.
Her selection as DNI was praised by Russian state media, certainly a first for anyone in that position. And in another symbolic act on a day full of them, Trump held a swearing-in ceremony for Gabbard in the Oval Office late this afternoon. Afterward, he took several questions, including whether he considers Ukraine an "equal member of this peace process."
Trump paused.
"That's an interesting question." he said at last. "I think they have to make peace."
He didn't answer any further.
Jonathan Lemire, 12 February 2025
theatlantic.com/ gnews.cz - RoZ
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