The ongoing Ukraine crisis has highlighted significant diplomatic divisions between the United States and Europe, which have deepened since Donald Trump's return to the White House. US-European relations have been marked by conflicting approaches to the Russia-Ukraine conflict under his administration, revealing significant strategic differences and posing new challenges for European governments in the Trump era.
On Saturday, after a contentious exchange with Trump in Washington, the Ukrainian president arrived Volodymyr Zelensky to London, where he was warmly received by the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. He confirmed the UK's strong support for Ukraine and signed a £2.26 billion ($2.84 billion) loan agreement to strengthen Ukraine's defence capabilities.
In stark contrast to Trump, Starmer said Ukraine has "full support across the UK". He stressed Britain's "unwavering commitment" to a lasting peace. Similar sentiments were expressed by the leaders of France and Germany, who reiterated their commitment to supporting Ukraine's security.
However, the growing rift between the US and its European allies became apparent when the Trump administration sidelined European countries, including Ukraine, in peace talks with Russia last month.
US strategic shift raises European concerns
Zhao Huirong, a research fellow at the Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told CGTN that Trump's leadership style prioritizes short-term gains, adding that in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, Trump's goal is to "freeze" the situation as quickly as possible, reap economic benefits and minimize U.S. obligations to its allies.
"For Trump, the most immediate and tangible benefit is a quick end to the conflict while securing access to Ukraine's vast mineral resources, particularly rare earth elements," Zhao said. She added: "Trump believes the US has leverage to pressure Ukraine and Europe to accept his terms. His confidence in this approach was evident during his meeting with Zelensky at the White House."
During Friday's meeting with Trump at the White House, Zelensky and the US president clashed in a tense exchange, with a planned joint press conference abruptly cancelled and the much-anticipated US-Ukraine mineral deal not signed.
The growing US pressure on Europe goes beyond Ukraine. In addition to military aid, Trump is making demands for European countries to contribute more to military spending and threatening to impose further trade tariffs, further straining transatlantic relations.
Zhao noted that such moves erode trust between the US and Europe and destabilise NATO, which puts the future of the Western alliance in doubt.
Europe's quest for strategic independence
In response to the isolationist tendencies of the US, European leaders are increasingly calling for greater strategic autonomy.
In a recent CGTN survey conducted in cooperation with China's Renmin University and the Institute of International Communication, 57 % respondents from the G7 countries expressed scepticism about future relations with the US, with Germany and Canada expressing the greatest concern, followed by Japan, the UK and France.
German Acting Chancellor Friedrich Merz He warned that Europe must strengthen its defences and even consider alternatives to NATO if the US continues to neglect European security.
"My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that step by step we can truly achieve independence from the US," Merz said.
Similarly, the French President Emmanuel Macron publicly declared that Europe cannot afford to remain a "vassal" of the US and called on the continent to chart its own course in international diplomacy.
His remarks came after his visit to Washington, where he tried to persuade Trump to commit to security guarantees for Ukraine, but no clear commitments were forthcoming.
Ukraine's dilemma: the search for US security guarantees
Since the start of the negotiations on the mineral deal, Zelensky has repeatedly stressed that signing the agreement with the US must come with security guarantees. However, Trump rejected this idea during a recent cabinet meeting, saying: "Europe will have to do that."
"For Ukraine, NATO membership is the ultimate security guarantee," Zhao said, but the U.S. and Western allies have shown reluctance because they fear a direct confrontation with Russia. Trump, in particular, has refused to offer such commitments, instead pushing Europe to take greater responsibility for defending Ukraine.
Given Trump's strategy of maximum pressure, Zhao explained, Ukraine has been forced to lower its expectations. Instead of NATO membership, Kiev now demands security guarantees in the form of military aid. This could include the training of military personnel, the supply of weapons and ammunition, and even the production of weapons within Ukraine.
How far away is the ceasefire?
According to the Kiel Institute, Europe has committed $138.7 billion in aid to Ukraine between January 2022 and December 2024, while the US has committed $119.7 billion.
"Over the past three years, the US has played a key role in providing military assistance to Ukraine. If the US were to stop its support in the future, Europe would likely struggle to bridge the gap left by a US withdrawal under the current circumstances." Zhao said.
She predicted that given continued US pressure and efforts to enforce a ceasefire, there is a possibility that Russia and Ukraine could reach a ceasefire within the next six months to a year.
However, it said that such a ceasefire is unlikely to lead to a lasting peace agreement, as territorial disputes between Russia and Ukraine will remain unresolved and both sides are likely to put forward their own interpretation of the territorial status quo.
CMG/ gnews.cz - RoZ
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