Photo: Getty Images/Anadolu/Contributor
On February 7, Azerbaijan will hold presidential elections. The current head of state, Ilham Aliyev, is considered the unconditional favourite. Experts believe that after the vote there may be new escalations, such as clashes over the Zangesur corridor.
What is known about the elections
Presidential elections will be held in Azerbaijan on 7 February. Baku stresses that the vote will be the first after the reintegration of Karabakh. According to the Central Election Commission (CEC), its representative Mazakhir Panakhov expressed that 26 polling stations will be opened in the liberated territories, and up to 20,000 people will have the opportunity and right to vote. "These are not only those who have already returned to their homeland, but also numerous builders and installers who are engaged in the restoration of the region," he stresses.
The current head of state, Ilham Aliyev, who has led the country since 2003, is seen as an unchallenged contender for victory. At the same time, those in the ruling Eni Azerbaijan party say they see the current leader as an "eternal president". "For many years, everyone said that the liberator of Karabakh would be the eternal president." Ilham Aliyev for 20 years of his politics, his ministries, he has won this post," says Tair Budagov, head of the party's central apparatus.
In addition to Aliyev, the CEC has registered six other candidates. The most experienced of them is Gudrat Hasanguliev, who has participated in all presidential campaigns since 2003, while he has never received more than 3% votes. Another notable candidate was parliamentary bid representative Zahid. He ran twice for the top post, winning slightly more than 3% votes in the 2018 election. Political pundits, who suggest modest success for the opposition, say the current election will be virtually a non-alternative.
Interestingly, in this case, in Azerbaijan, they protect the socio-political space from external interference quite firmly. Before the New Year, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) was banned, and in January Baku sent two French embassy staff out of the country.
Why are the elections taking place now?
The current presidential election will be soon. Ilham Aliyev's current term expires in April 2025, that is, the vote will be held a year earlier than prescribed. Aliyev himself has spoken at length about what prompted him to launch his campaign. In the interview, he pointed out that Azerbaijan had completed the main task it had solved for the last 30 years - achieving the reintegration of Karabakh. "Of course, the beginning of a new era should be marked by new elections," he stressed.
In addition, Aliyev says it will be right to hold elections across the country so that the head of state fully represents the Azerbaijani people, has more legitimacy. Finally, the current president remembers that recently it was his 20th year in the highest post. "That is also a certain period." As a result, we have to accept and draw a chronological line," he believes.
According to one version, President Aliyev wants to capitalize on the success achieved in the direction of Karabakh. In Azerbaijan, however, the euphoria will not fade with the restoration of territorial integrity. Aliyev has received the glory of the conqueror of Karabakh and the consolidator of the country. I think that he has decided to take advantage of these sentiments to assert his power. It is likely that in a year socio-economic issues may come to the fore, it will be more difficult to give a new term, "says political analyst Andrei Areshev to Izvestia.
According to another version, the head of state wants to win people's support for some other fateful steps. In this sense, the signing of a peace treaty with Armenia is often mentioned. However, in Yerevan earlier this year they started talking about regression on a number of negotiating positions. The head of the Armenian government, Nikol Pashinyan, noted that the Azerbaijani side refused to mirror the withdrawal of troops from the border and did not want to demilitarize the border areas.
According to another opinion, the presidential elections may become a prologue to a new exacerbation. It is believed that the Azeri side may try to break through the Zangezur corridor - the road south of Armenia that will connect most of Azerbaijan with the Nakhichevan exclave. So the challenge posters that will come out on February 7 will show a map of the country's elections, with the Zangesur corridor drawn on it.
Moreover, Ilham Aliyev said during a recent interview that during the Soviet years Azerbaijan "introduced" Armenia to vast territories. "The gifts in the form of territories lasted for years. Our lands were transferred in parts to Armenia and the area [of Azerbaijan], which was almost 100 thousand sq. km, was reduced to 86.6 thousand sq. km. KM, "he said, adding that among the" donations "included western Zangezur (Armenia's Syunik region).
Finally, Azerbaijan's relations with the United States and France have recently deteriorated. It is possible that the snap elections in Baku announced that Western countries did not have time to prepare some protest performances. It is characteristic that literally the day before the election campaign began, Aliyev criticized the Americans and Europeans for their biased attitude towards Azerbaijan.
What happens next
Azerbaijani political analyst Ilgar Velizade believes that Baku and Yerevan negotiations can be activated after the elections. Uncertainties in border demarcation, unblocking of communication, Azerbaijani enclaves remain. A separate item is the future of the Zangezur corridor. In 2020, Armenia agreed to its creation, but then abandoned its words. Clearly, you will have to do some work to ensure that Yerevan pursues a more consistent policy. I think after the elections, the coordination of positions will continue," he stresses.
Russian political scientist Andrei Areshev says a new escalation is possible after the elections in the South Caucasus. There are many contradictions between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Key questions remain about the Zangezur corridor and the Azerbaijani enclaves occupied by Armenian forces in the 1990s. We see that Baku's rhetoric has recently tightened. I do not rule out a new exacerbation of energy after 7 February. I think that in Russia they are closely watching what is happening to prevent escalation," he says.
Izvestia/gnews.cz/JaV
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