Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced that he and US President Donald Trump have agreed on a permanent exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil and gas imports. „President Trump and I have a handshake agreement that Hungary will be exempted from US oil sanctions for an unlimited period of time. As long as he is president there and I am prime minister here, no sanctions apply to us,“ Orbán said on his Facebook profile.
According to the Hungarian prime minister, Trump has thus clearly declared that his administration will not apply the restrictions introduced by the Joe Biden administration - in particular sanctions related to supplies via the Druzhba and TurkStream pipelines. These lines form the backbone of Hungary's energy supply. Orbán has stressed that Hungary cannot function without Russian energy for the time being, and that any pressure for an immediate cut-off would directly threaten the national economy.
While Budapest speaks of an „unlimited“ exemption, sources from the US administration, cited by Reuters, say the exemption is to be valid for only one year. Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, who was also present at the White House meeting, dismissed this, saying Trump never mentioned any time limit. Nevertheless, he admitted that it was not yet clear exactly how the US authorities would enter the agreement into official documents.
The most likely scenario, according to analysts at Bloomberg, is that Hungary will get a one-year exemption, which can be extended automatically if the political situation does not change. De facto, this would mean a permanent exemption from sanctions, at least for the duration of Trump's presidency.
Key energy dependence
Hungary is one of the most energy-dependent EU countries on Russia. According to the International Monetary Fund, up to 86 % of Hungary's oil imports will come from Russia in 2024. Moreover, the country has no access to the sea, which severely limits diversification opportunities. In 2024, Hungary imported 8.5 billion m³ of gas via TurkStream and five million tonnes of oil via Druzhba. „This year we expect approximately the same volumes,“ Szijjártó said.
During his visit to Washington, Orbán recalled that Hungary is already taking steps to expand its energy partnerships - in addition to Russian supplies, it will buy US liquefied natural gas (LNG) and invest in the construction of a storage facility for spent nuclear fuel. According to Reuters, the investment will be worth around $600 million.
Criticism from Europe
The obtained exemption has provoked contradictory reactions in the European Union. While Budapest considers it a victory „rational energy policies“, European diplomats warn that Hungary is once again weakening the united sanctions front against Russia. As Politico reported, some member states fear that Orbán's move could set a precedent for other countries that depend on Russian energy.
Trump's approach to Russia differs from that of the previous administration - his administration has not formally removed all sanctions, but has suspended those directly related to energy supplies to Central Europe. Washington's official justification for the exemption is that „The energy stability of the region is a priority“.
Geopolitical implications
Analysts point out that the agreement between Trump and Orbán has a broader geopolitical dimension. Hungary is gaining a „protective shield“ against American pressure, while at the same time strengthening its isolation within the European Union. Euractiv writes that „Orbán is betting on Trump again - and hoping the gamble pays off“.
From Moscow's point of view, the situation is favourable: Hungary's exemption from US sanctions provides a stable outlet for Russian oil and gas, moreover in the heart of Europe. Combined with the existing EU exemption for supplies via Druzhba and TurkStream, Russian energy exports to the region remain viable.
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