In a new interview with Commodity Culture, best-selling author and macroeconomic strategist Jim Rickards explains why the price of gold could shoot above $20,000, why silver could overtake it, and why he believes the continuation of the war in Ukraine under President Volodymyr Zelensky will only deepen Kiev's losses. Investors, politicians and anyone who follows global risks should listen to what he had to say.
Few people in macroeconomics can connect market analysis to geopolitical reality as well as Jim Rickards. In an interview with Jesse Day on the Commodity Culture YouTube channel, the former Pentagon consultant doubled down on his earlier gold price forecast at 23 000 USD and painted a grim picture of world politics, from the growing internal turmoil in the United States to the "doomed to fail" Ukrainian war strategy.
Central bank safety net fuels further gold gains
Rickards' bullish view on the yellow metal is based on record demand from the official sector. Since 2010, central banks have gone from net sellers to net buyers; China, Russia, India and Turkey are buying tons of gold for their vaults, creating what Rickards calls an "asymmetric trade" for private investors: limited downside, unlimited upside. Stable supply from the mines - approximately 4,000 tonnes per year for six years - amplifies this pressure, while gold's proven ability to thrive in both inflationary and deflationary spirals has supported its forecast price in excess of $20,000.
Silver: a late starter who could sprint
While gold fills the headlines, silver is "quietly" making its own way, notes Rickards. With the metal historically lagging behind gold, he expects a catch-up phase that could catapult prices over 100 USD/ozas soon as gold crosses the five-digit mark. The practical role of silver as fractional money in times of crisis - "a box of silver coins is food for the family", he quips - adds further wind to the sails.
An internal enemy - and a misinterpreted external alliance
On policy, Rickards argues that the US faces a greater threat from domestic radicalisation than from any external enemy. Lone wolf shootings and online extremist grooming practices, he says, illustrate the growing inability of the Department of Justice and the FBI to use available tools to track and combat terrorist financing.
Ukraine: no longer a democracy, no path to victory
His most controversial analysis focuses on Kiev. Rickards points out that President Volodymyr Zelensky's five-year constitutional term expires in May 2024. Governing under a state of emergency, he says, means that "Ukraine is no longer a democracy, but a de facto military dictatorship". He describes the regime as "deeply corrupt" and militarily exhausted; its continuation guarantees only greater territorial losses. Because Zelensky's strategy is "incompetent", Rickards believes Moscow has every reason to keep him in power - "if your opponent is led by an incompetent man, you leave him in place". For this reason, he finds Washington's rhetoric about "defending democracy" fatally misleading.
Implications for investors
Rickards' combination of market mathematics and geopolitical realism sketches a world in which monetary hedging is no longer optional. If his thesis is correct, gold and silver are poised for a generational bull market, while Western policy towards Russia and Ukraine faces a final - and perhaps sudden - clash with reality. Either way, portfolio protection looks a lot cheaper today than it could be tomorrow.
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