U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran on Wednesday night - less than two hours before the expiration of an ultimatum he had set, after which he threatened massive attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure. The world gasped. But only half-heartedly.
Pakistan as a last-minute firefighter
Pakistan played a key role in the diplomatic rescue mission. The chief of Pakistan's armed forces Asim Munir spent the entire night in contact with the U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, with Pakistan acting as the sole channel of communication between the opposing sides.
Prime Minister of Pakistan Shahbaz Sharif then announced on Platform X that Iran and the U.S., along with its allies, had agreed to an immediate ceasefire „everywhere, including Lebanon“. In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that he decided to suspend the bombing of Iran based on a conversation with the Pakistani prime minister and Field Marshal Munir, who asked him not to let destructive force come into play tonight.
China as a behind-the-scenes player
Beijing is also behind the Pakistani front. Speaking to AFP after the ceasefire announcement, Trump admitted that he believed China had helped bring Iran to the negotiating table. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi made 26 phone calls to representatives of Iran, Israel, Russia and the Arab Gulf states during the conflict. The Chinese government's special envoy for the Middle East also visited the region in person.
In late March, China and Pakistan jointly presented a five-point plan calling for a ceasefire and the resumption of free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. But Beijing is deliberately keeping a low profile - the Chinese Foreign Ministry told CNN that Beijing „supports the mediation efforts of Pakistan and other countries“ and is willing „maintain communication and coordination with all parties“.
Iran's 10-point plan: a foundation or a dead end?
At the heart of the ceasefire is Iran's 10-point peace proposal. Iran sent this document to the Pakistani mediators after having prepared it for two weeks. A U.S. official who has seen the draft called it „maximalist“.
The plan, according to a summary by Iran's Supreme National Security Council, includes: opening the Strait of Hormuz under the coordination of Iran's armed forces, ending the war against all components of the so-called Axis of Resistance, withdrawing US forces from all bases in the region, paying reparations for war damages, and lifting sanctions, including the release of frozen assets. Yet the proposal contains no commitment to curbing Iran's nuclear programme - a long-standing priority of the Trump administration.
At the same time, Iran rejected the US 15-point counterproposal, which included a 30-day ceasefire, dismantling Iran's nuclear facilities and curbing its missile programme in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. „extremely maximalist and unreasonable“. Yet Trump has said that the Iran plan represents „a functional basis for action“ and that „almost all the points of contention have already been agreed“.
Israel: for a ceasefire, but not at any price
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initially warned Trump against a ceasefire, according to Axios. However, he eventually supported it - with conditions. Netanyahu said his government supports the ceasefire, but argued that the agreement does not apply to the fighting in Lebanon.
Iran's Supreme National Security Council has accepted the ceasefire, but stressed that „this does not mean the end of the war“. The statement added: „Our hands remain on the trigger and any slightest mistake by the enemy will be immediately retaliated with full force.“
What's next?
Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi confirmed that Iran will approach the Islamabad talks on the basis of its 10-point plan and the US 15-point proposal. Analyst Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute, told The National that despite fundamental differences between the parties, there is potential for an agreement: „They speak in a way that at least allows them to agree on a basic framework.“ A source close to the negotiations expressed doubts to Reuters that the two-week ceasefire would last, describing it as „trust building exercise“. The Islamabad talks begin on Friday 10 April.
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