The European Union is unlikely to meet the United Nations' September deadline for submitting a new emissions target under the Paris Agreement. According to Politico, member states have failed to agree on a concrete plan and instead only want to send a "statement of intent" to the UN.
"Sorry, guys. We'll get back to you." That's the informal message the union is expected to deliver at a key climate summit in New York. According to Politico In doing so, the EU admits that it failed to reach agreement on the 2035 target in time.
Failure would mean a diplomatic weakening of the European position. The EU has long profiled itself as a leader in international climate negotiations, but this time China - the world's biggest polluter - will be ready to present its plan on time.
Interim plan from Denmark
Denmark is currently leading the negotiations. Its proposal foresees that the EU will only send a temporary framework: an emissions reduction of 66.3 to 72.5 per cent compared to 1990 by 2035. "We have received broad support for the approach where we will submit a declaration of intent," said a spokesman for the Danish negotiating team.
However, he also admitted that there are "different views on the exact content" and therefore environment ministers are facing "difficult negotiations". This is reminiscent of the deep divisions between member states: Poland, for example, recommends adopting the proposed interval as an official target, while other countries insist that 2035 must not be separated from the more ambitious 2040 milestone.
Political disputes hamper ambition
According to Politico The EU should have originally derived the 2035 target directly from the 2040 framework. However, this is blocked by internal disputes - large member states blocked the vote and Denmark had to postpone the decision. In practice, this means that environment ministers are now only offered a "Plan B".
Some countries consider the interim approach to be a weakening of the European role, as the EU would de facto only be binding on the lower limit of 66.3 percent. Others, however, argue that even a provisional agreement is better than silence, and that the numbers could be tightened over time.
Risk of diplomatic failure
Failure to meet the UN's September deadline risks losing credibility for the Union. The organisation is now calling on nearly 200 countries to submit new commitments (NDCs) to be assessed ahead of the COP30 climate conference in Belém, Brazil, in November.
"While a declaration of intent would prevent the EU from arriving in New York empty-handed, it won't change the fact that the union will miss the official deadline," diplomats warned, quoted by Politico.
China in contrast to the EU
While the EU is only considering an interim target, China has announced that it will submit its plan on time and cover all sectors and greenhouse gases. The move strengthens its international position and puts pressure on Europe, which has long stood by its climate ambition.
According to the Danish proposal, the final target should be agreed before COP30. Climate leaders hope that the EU leaders' summit in October will pave the way for agreement on 2040 targets and thus a clearer 2035 commitment. For now, however, the union is going to the UN climate summit with only a promise - not a clear plan.
Politico/gnews.cz - GH
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