According to the Indian newspaper The Hindu and Chinese experts, a possible US military intervention against Iran would further escalate the situation in the Middle East and increase the suffering of the civilian population, not resolve the internal crisis in the country.
„Repeated protests have exposed structural weaknesses, while the state has shown limited capacity to respond to public complaints. The solution, however, is not another bombing campaign,“ The Hindu reports. The daily also points out that despite the pressure on the Iranian leadership, there is no question of its internal isolation.
Approximately 30 million people, or about 50 % voters, participated in the 2024 presidential election. In addition, on 12 January, thousands of Iranians participated in pro-government rallies. „Despite the Israeli bombing, the long-standing protests and Donald Trump's threats, there are no visible cracks in the loyalty of the security apparatus,“ writes the newspaper.
According to The Hindu, a US attack aimed at regime change could plunge the region deeper into chaos or drag Iran into prolonged cycles of violence. „Anyone with even a basic understanding of the US invasions of Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya knows that wars for regime change do not solve internal political crises,“ states The Hindu.
The newspaper also calls on the United States to seek dialogue with the Iranian leadership and support for meaningful reforms instead of a military solution.
Chinese experts are similarly sceptical about the possibility of a US military operation. According to Jin Liangxiang, Director of the Centre for Middle East Studies at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, the United States will not be able to repeat in Iran the scenario it has applied in Venezuela.
„American military action against Venezuela would be very difficult to replicate in Iran,“ Jin said. He explained that Venezuela's capital, Caracas, is close to the coast, allowing the Americans to use electronic jamming devices with relative ease to create a direct route from the coast to President Nicolás Maduro's residence and possibly carry out a kidnapping. „Tehran, on the other hand, is thousands of kilometers inland, which makes it significantly more difficult to maintain effective electronic jamming over such a distance,“ He added.
The expert also warned that Iran's retaliatory actions during last year's 12-day conflict with Israel have made both Washington and Tel Aviv more cautious about Iran's missile capabilities. If tensions escalate again, he said, Tehran could resort to even harsher countermeasures, which would increase the level of uncertainty for both the United States and Israel.
Jin Liangxiang also warned that outside intervention could exacerbate Iran's current problems and pose a systemic threat to its political stability and security. But he also noted that Tehran could turn the crisis into an opportunity. „If Iran is well prepared and able to respond effectively, an unexpected turn cannot be ruled out,“ he said.
Experts say Iran has recently appeared better prepared to face both internal unrest and external threats, including a possible military escalation.
Unrest in Iran began on 29 December after protests sparked by a sharp fall in the Iranian riyal quickly spread to most major cities. Authorities have announced the deaths of some 40 members of the security forces. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that armed terrorists have emerged among the demonstrators since 8 January. Tehran accused Israel and the United States of organising the unrest. US President Donald Trump has previously warned that he is seriously considering the use of force against Iran.
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