Although more than 130 countries pledged to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 at the UN COP28 climate summit in Dubai in 2023, most have made little progress since then. According to a new report by climate think-tank Ember, published by the UK's The Guardian , only 22 countries - mostly EU members - have renewed their targets.
The report notes that the global total of national plans has increased by only 2 % since COP28. While this could lead to a doubling of capacity from 2022 levels to 7.4 terawatts (TW), it would not be enough to meet the UN target of 11 TW.
"Tripling global renewable capacity by 2030 is the most critical step of this decade to staying on the path to 1.5°C," the Ember think-tank report says. "However, the national targets remain almost unchanged and fall short of what is needed."
The major absentees are mainly the largest emitters - USA, China and Russia - which together account for almost half of global emissions. According to Ember, neither the U.S. nor Russia have set renewable targets for 2030 and their political leaders are unlikely to define them soon.
For China, the key is expected to be in its 15th Five Year Plan for the energy sector for the period 2026-2030, which is expected to be finalised this year. Until then, its position remains uncertain.
Other non-EU countries that have updated their targets include. Vietnam, Australia, Brazil and Korea. The most ambitious is Vietnam, which has promised to increase capacity by 86 GW by 2030. Australia plans an increase of 18 GW and Brazil 15 GW. South Korea expects to grow by 9 GW.
The UK has expanded its plan by a further 7 GW to meet the New Labour government's commitment to create a near-carbon-free electricity sector.
India has not changed its targets, but its current plan - to build 500 GW of renewables by 2030 - is in line with the global target, according to Ember.
Conversely, some states have set their ambitions have weakened - for example Mexico and Indonesia.
The Ember report confirms that without an immediate acceleration of the transition to clean energy, the world will remain dependent on fossil fuels, which would mean failure to keep global warming below 1.5 °Cas agreed in the Paris Agreement.
The Guardian/gnesw.cz - GH
