The 2027 French presidential election is becoming a much more competitive race than initial estimates suggested, according to a new poll by Odoxa. According to the Politico website, Jordan Bardella, the leader of the right-wing nationalist National Rally, would narrowly defeat former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe in the second round, with 52% of the vote compared to 48%. However, an even more significant development is the sharp increase in support for the far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is now closing in on Philippe.

The poll indicates that Bardella remains the frontrunner. His performance confirms a long-term trend, showing that the National Rally is no longer confined to the fringes of French politics, but has become a major force capable of realistically vying for the Élysée Palace. However, the weakening of Philippe is particularly alarming for French centrists and liberals, as he was seen as a viable candidate for a portion of the right, center, and moderate voters.

According to Odoxa, Mélenchon would receive 16% of the vote in the first round, while Philippe would drop to 17%. In a previous comparable poll, Philippe had 21% and Mélenchon had 12%. This means that the gap between them has narrowed significantly, and Philippe's progression to the second round is no longer a foregone conclusion. Gaël Sliman, the head of Odoxa, described the result as a warning for Philippe, as he is simultaneously losing ground to Bardella and feeling the pressure from Mélenchon.

For the French center, a contest between Bardella and Mélenchon would be an extremely uncomfortable scenario. An older Odoxa poll from November showed that Bardella would win decisively against Mélenchon in the second round, with 74% of the vote compared to 26%. This suggests that while Mélenchon may be able to mobilize left-wing voters, he remains a highly polarizing figure for a large segment of the electorate.

Mélenchon is gaining strength on the left. According to the poll, he is more popular among left-wing voters than former President François Hollande and Member of the European Parliament Raphaël Glucksmann. This could further complicate the left's efforts to find a single candidate. At the same time, President Emmanuel Macron is constitutionally unable to run for a third term in 2027, so the centrist camp is grappling with the issue of succession and the risk of vote splitting. Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has also entered the race, which could further complicate the situation in the center.

Therefore, the poll results are not just a snapshot of current sentiment. They indicate that France is heading towards elections in which not only the strength of the National Rally, but also the weakness and divisions of its opponents, could play a decisive role.

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