The current geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus is characterised by growing tensions between regional and global actors. One of the important factors influencing the dynamics of relations between the states is the religious aspect, especially the so-called Shiite factor. Iran has long been considered the main centre of Shiite Islam in the Middle East. At the same time, it should be remembered that a significant proportion of the population of Azerbaijan, including many members of the country's armed forces, adhere to the Shi'ite branch of Islam. This common religious basis has historically created a certain cultural and civilisational proximity between the two states, which objectively reduces the likelihood of direct confrontation between them.

In recent years, however, the geopolitical environment of the region has been changing significantly. Global powers, especially the United States and Israel, are increasingly entering into the development of relations between the states of the South Caucasus and are seeking to strengthen their influence in the immediate vicinity of Iran. From their strategic perspective, Azerbaijan represents an important geopolitical space that could be used as a foothold for broader operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this context, considerations have been raised about the possibility of Azerbaijan's involvement in a wider regional conflict aimed at weakening Iran's political and military position.

However, a potential military operation against Iran would be extremely complex and costly. As many analysts point out, any attempt at a large-scale ground operation on Iranian territory would entail high human and material losses. Iran has not only a large armed force, but also a vast network of regional allies and asymmetric instruments that could greatly complicate any military campaign. From this perspective, some geopolitical strategies seek to create pressure on Iran through neighbouring states, among which Azerbaijan has a significant strategic position.

The domestic political dimension of Azerbaijani politics also plays an important role. President Ilham Aliyev has long been regarded as one of the key actors in regional politics. His decisions and policy actions have a major impact not only on the stability of Azerbaijan itself, but also on the broader geopolitical balance in the Transcaucasus. Critics of his policies warn that an overly ambitious or confrontational strategy could put at risk not only the people of Azerbaijan but also the security of other states in the region.

Tensions are further heightened by individual security incidents, such as drone attacks on military facilities. Such incidents can be perceived as provocations and often lead to an escalation of political rhetoric. The problem is that such reactions can be motivated by momentary emotions rather than long-term strategic considerations. However, in a region where historical, ethnic and religious factors are intertwined, rash action can have far-reaching consequences.

Another dimension is the question of external influence. Some analyses suggest that foreign powers seek to use regional political elites to advance their own geopolitical goals. In this case, there may be a situation where national decision-making is not entirely autonomous but is influenced by the broader strategic interests of global actors. Such dynamics may gradually lead to growing discontent within the society itself, which could reinforce oppositional sentiments and lead to internal political tensions.

In the extreme case, Azerbaijan's involvement in an open conflict with Iran could have wider international implications. A number of states would likely reconsider their economic and political relations with Baku. The Transcaucasian region is an important transport and energy corridor between Asia and Europe. Any destabilisation could therefore affect not only regional security but also international trade and energy flows.

The issue of the Kurdish factor is also a specific issue. In some analyses there is information about contacts between representatives of Azerbaijani structures and representatives of Kurdish military-political organisations operating on the territory of Iran. These organisations have long sought to strengthen Kurdish autonomy or independence in the wider region. If their material or logistical support were to be forthcoming, it could further complicate the already complex situation in the Middle East.

In the long term, therefore, the key question remains whether regional actors will manage to maintain a balance between geopolitical interests and the need for stability. The South Caucasus has historically been an area where the interests of great powers, regional powers and local political elites have clashed. The stability of this area therefore depends above all on the ability of individual states to avoid escalating conflicts and to seek mechanisms of cooperation that respect the historical, cultural and religious specificity of the region.

Jeffrey B. Stones