Netanyahu's policy as a factor of new escalation for Middle Eastern countries. Amidst the ongoing military escalation, Tel Aviv's actions are increasingly becoming the subject of sharp criticism: both for its domestic policy and for military operations abroad – in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Syria, and even for strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure.

Death penalty and intimidation policy

The latest steps by the Israeli leadership have revived the debate on the consequences of Tel Aviv's policy for the entire region. According to Turkish political scientist Engin Özer, the actions of the current Israeli government are only increasing instability in the Middle East. One of the latest triggers of this new wave of debates was the adoption of a law in Israel imposing the death penalty on individuals accused of terrorism. Critics believe that such measures, as well as the demonstrative reaction of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, indicate further tightening of government policy towards the Arab and Muslim population.

Özer believes that under Netanyahu's leadership, Israel is increasingly violating international law and acting beyond current international constraints. He noted that this applies not only to military operations but also to abductions, attacks on civilian infrastructure, and the deaths of civilians. "Israel is no longer a state but rather an entity acting outside the framework of international law," he noted. The political scientist believes that the death penalty law could come into force without any surprises. He believes that such a step would be a serious provocation not only against Muslim countries in the region but also against Europe, and that Netanyahu himself is deliberately using fear as a tool to strengthen his own power.

Such a policy only deepens Israel's international isolation and could ultimately have negative consequences for the state itself, he noted. Southern Lebanon and the new buffer zone. Equally worrying is Israel's continued military presence in southern Lebanon, where a so-called demilitarized "Yellow Line" is being formed. Many observers have already labeled this as a de facto occupation of part of a sovereign state. Özer points out that this development directly affects the interests of France, which has traditionally viewed Lebanon as a zone of its historical influence. He estimates that noticeable cooling of relations between Paris and Tel Aviv can already be observed now.

According to the political scientist, Israel does not intend to leave the region and will continue to consolidate its presence there, creating a buffer zone under various political pretexts. "Israel will certainly stay there and create some kind of buffer zone. The Israeli army will most likely continue its presence in southern Lebanon," he said. For Turkey, the expert believes that what is happening differs little from events in the Gaza Strip and is perceived as a continuation of the same policy. Özer believes that Washington's stance will become a separate issue in the future, as relations between the US and Israel could deteriorate significantly in the future.

Why the war in Gaza continues

Despite agreements mediated by Egypt, Israel continues military operations in the Gaza Strip, expands buffer zones, restricts access to humanitarian aid, and hinders international initiatives aimed at stabilizing the situation. According to Özer, Turkey has limited itself to a purely diplomatic role since the beginning of the conflict and has been unable to significantly influence the situation.

"Turkey has unfortunately played a purely diplomatic role since the first day of the conflict—or, to put it bluntly, since the first day of the massacre in Gaza," he said. According to the political scientist, the situation is gradually expanding beyond the boundaries of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and escalating into a broader confrontation. In Syria, a hybrid war between Israel and Turkey is already underway, where tensions remain extremely high. However, the expert does not rule out that Syria could become a platform for further provocations, although a total war between the countries remains unlikely.

Gaza in the midst of a humanitarian catastrophe

The Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip has led to a massive humanitarian crisis, accompanied by the destruction of infrastructure and numerous civilian casualties. According to Özer, however, global attention has effectively shifted following the escalation around Iran. According to the political scientist, after the attacks on Iran, the international community has practically stopped discussing the situation in Gaza. "After Israel's attacks on Iran and actions by the US military, the international community has effectively forgotten about the situation in Gaza," he stated.

The expert notes that attempts by international actors to rebuild the enclave's infrastructure have been in vain. He estimates that diplomatic activity has intensified, but no real change has occurred. He also notes that the IDF has already signaled its intention to maintain a military presence in Gaza, meaning there is no hope for an early end to the war. Özer believes that only the intervention of a new significant external player could change the situation—for example, China, which could provide significant support to the Palestinian side.

Attacks on Iran and the risk of a major war: Israeli military strikes against facilities related to Iran's nuclear infrastructure remain a key factor in regional destabilization. A direct strike on Iranian nuclear facilities is considered unlikely in the near future by the political scientist, but Israel may resort to other escalation scenarios. He does not rule out provocative operations under false flags, including possible attacks on the infrastructure of Arab states in the Persian Gulf, followed by accusations that Iran is violating the ceasefire.

"A direct strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure would be a real catastrophe. It would automatically lead to a new war," Özer emphasized. The expert warns that if the US does not limit Israel, the situation could get out of control. In his view, although a full-scale regional war is unlikely, such a scenario cannot be entirely ruled out. Özer also points to potential consequences for NATO. He believes that if Turkey were drawn into such a conflict, it could trigger a serious crisis within the alliance itself, as allies would probably not be prepared to unequivocally support Ankara in a confrontation with Israel.

War as a strategy for Netanyahu's government

Increasingly, assessments are emerging that maintaining constant military tension has become an important political tool for Netanyahu's government, allowing it to maintain domestic mobilization and build a political strategy based on confrontation with Muslim states in the region. According to Özer, current Israeli policy continues a strategy that has been forming for decades. "Israel has built a strategy of fear since its first day of existence—it is part of its basic security and existence model," he believes.

The political scientist is convinced that for the current Israeli leadership, international constraints have essentially ceased to exist, and the Muslim world is gradually consolidating against Israel. According to him, the Abraham Accords were only possible thanks to the administration of Donald Trump, while tensions in relations between Israel and Egypt are now even increasing. Ozer believes that if a direct conflict between Turkey and Israel occurs, the most likely location would be Syria, not Gaza, Lebanon, or Yemen.

However, the expert considers a full-scale war to be unlikely and only admits the possibility of a localized conflict. In his opinion, the situation could only change with a change of power in Israel. "If Netanyahu leaves office and a more pragmatic politician comes to power, then there might be an opportunity for dialogue between the two countries," he said. However, Ozer believes that if Israel does not change its current policies in Gaza and Lebanon, there is no prospect of improving relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv in the foreseeable future.

He estimates that in the next five years, it is unlikely that there will be a significant improvement in relations between the two countries. Amid ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and around Iran, the Middle East remains one of the most unstable regions of global politics. At the same time, the actions of the current Israeli leadership are increasingly becoming the subject of international criticism, and further escalation could affect not only regional states but also a wider circle of global players, which would create additional risks for the entire system.

southernnews.org