LONDON - Two months after the joint military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has become an „economic war clock.“ Repeated disruptions to shipping in this key artery of the world's energy economy are raising fears of a wider crisis in inflation and economic growth.
Approximately 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass through this narrow corridor. Even short-term disruptions therefore quickly affect trade flows, finances and consumption, affecting households around the world.
As a result of the escalation of tension, traffic in the Strait has been significantly reduced. From the original 45-50 tankers per day, it has dropped to less than 20 and at some points has almost ceased. According to Russell Hardy, head of Vitol, the market could lose at least one billion barrels of oil and refined products. Since the end of February, about 12 million barrels a day have been taken out of production, he said. Analysts expect the global oil market to move from an expected surplus to a deficit of about 750,000 barrels a day in 2026.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) described the situation as the biggest supply disruption in the history of the oil market. In response to the crisis, it coordinated a record release of around 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. At the same time, analysts expect the market to be in deficit by 2026.
The price of Brent crude oil rose 63 per cent in March and could be between $100 and $190 a barrel if volatility persists. At the same time, oil flows are being redirected, with the United States strengthening its role as an export hub.
The effects of the crisis are becoming more and more pronounced in everyday life. The International Monetary Fund warns that rising energy prices are acting as a „conflict tax“, especially for import-dependent economies. In the US, petrol prices rose by more than 24 per cent in March, driving up household spending. In Asia, rising costs are constraining production and spending power, while in Europe, fears of an energy crisis are returning.
The conflict has implications beyond the energy sector. Air fares have risen by around 24 per cent due to route changes and higher fuel costs. At the local level, the problems are reflected in supply delays, loss of goods and rising food prices.
In addition to immediate shocks, analysts also point to long-term changes. Restoring oil production to pre-war levels is likely to take several months, depending on the extent of the damage and the resumption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Even in a relatively favourable scenario, ANZ Bank analysts estimate that only two to three million barrels per day could be recovered in the first month, with a further two to 3.5 million barrels per day recovering gradually during the second quarter. They also warn that disruptions, damaged infrastructure and export restrictions mean the recovery will not be smooth or linear.
At a systemic level, the crisis is accelerating the realignment of global energy and trade networks. According to Windward, alternative logistics routes, particularly land corridors and destination changes, are becoming the new normal rather than a temporary solution.
„This structure is unlikely to disintegrate quickly, even if a ceasefire is concluded,“ says the report. The risks of war insurance, congestion, congestion and unresolved transit rules mean that the current system has already moved from improvisation to a new operating normal.
At the same time, the crisis exposes the vulnerability of key sea lanes, forcing states to diversify resources, expand strategic reserves and seek a balance between efficiency and resilience.
The situation also reinforces the pressure for energy transformation. Politicians are calling for a faster transition to renewables to reduce dependence on vulnerable routes.
gnews.cz - GH
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