Ahead of the European Parliament elections, many different polls emerged. There were likely quite a few, including one post-election, or rather, "unofficial" one. It wasn't conducted by any of the reputable polling companies. In fact, it wasn't conducted by any reputable company, and not by any company at all.

Daniel Vávra, a video game designer, screenwriter, director, co-founder, and creative director of Warhorse Studios, published the results of the poll on his Facebook page. A total of 7,067 people voted. That's a significant number. Reputable polling companies often work with samples of around 1,000 respondents. However, Vávra himself described his audience as ""by all accounts, right-wing and conservative, as it has been so far."

Therefore, the results cannot be considered entirely objective or representative. Vávra's assessment was based on responses to two questions: "Who did you vote for in 2021?" and "Who are you voting for in the European elections?" Even just comparing these two elections reveals some interesting trends.

Approximately 28% of respondents said they voted for one of the governing coalitions' parties – specifically, the stronger SPOLU coalition: ODS (16.3%), TOP 09 (1.2%), and KDU-ČSL (0.7%), and the weaker alliance of Pirates (5.9%) and STAN (4%). The next most popular parties were Svobodní (14.4%), SPD (13.5%), ANO (11.2%), and Trikolora (9.9%).

And what about this year? This year, Motoristé has 39.9%, Svobodní has 11.3%, SPD and Trikolora have 8.9%, and STAČILO! has 7.4%. SPOLU only received 6.2% this year, STAN received 1.8%, and the Pirates received 2.4%. So, the governing coalition received a total of 10.4%. That's almost a threefold decline. It's important to note that Vávra's audience is quite different from the overall electorate, as it's likely missing certain demographics. For example, only 2% of his audience voted for ANO this year, and 6.3% voted for PRO.

Vávra also analyzed the shifts in voters between different candidates. He broke down who voted for STAČILO! in 2021: 26.7% had previously voted for ANO, 22.5% for SPD, 14.3% for Trikolora, 5% for Volný blok, and 5% for Svobodné. Another 8.4% didn't change their minds and voted for the Communist Party (KSČM) in 2021.

Vávra also has answers about who voted for Přísaha and Motoristé: 17.9% were former ODS voters, 14.3% were Svobodní voters, 12.2% were ANO voters. 11.3% were non-voters. 10.8% were SPD voters, and 10.1% were Trikolora voters (note: Trikolora ran in a coalition with Svobodní and Soukromníci back then).

According to Vávra, who stole the votes from SPD? A third (31.9%) switched to Motoristé, 12.4% went to STAČILO!, 11.6% to PRO, and 6.1% to Svobodní.

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