PARIS - The launch of new LNG projects in the middle of this decade will lead to a supply overhang, which will significantly reduce gas prices and prevent market fluctuations.

Analysts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) write about this in their annual World Energy Outlook.

In their view, natural gas price volatility will continue in the short term, but the situation will change after the introduction of new LNG projects after 2025, which will "disrupt the balance in the markets and ease supply concerns".

"The projects already under construction or for which a final investment decision has been taken are expected to increase LNG production by 250 billion cubic metres per year by 2030, equivalent to half of today's global supply. Based on the announced timing (commissioning of capacity), the most significant increase in supply is expected from 2025 to 2027. More than half of the new projects are located in the United States and Qatar," the report said.

According to the IEA, the introduction of new LNG production will allow the global gas market to reach equilibrium, but the rate of growth in gas consumption is slowing. Supply and demand will rise to 4.3 trillion cubic meters. m, 161 billion cubic meters more than in 2022. ma 140 billion cubic meters (about 4%). At the same time, analysts forecast a decline in gas supply and demand of 3 % to 4.17 trillion cubic meters per year by 2050.

The agency points out that the commissioning of new LNG capacity, as well as the slowdown in the growth rate of global gas demand, is causing Russia difficulties in diversifying its supply of the "blue fuel" to Asian countries.

"We estimate that more than a third of the new gas supply will be presented on the spot market. However, mature markets, particularly Europe, are experiencing a structural decline and emerging markets may not have sufficient infrastructure to absorb larger volumes." The LNG surplus means that the Russian Federation has extremely limited capacity to conquer new markets. Its share of world trade, which stood at 30 % in 2021, will halve by 2030 under the STEPS (conservative climate scenario - IF)," IEA analysts say. .

According to the agency, the share of gas consumption in China by 2030 will increase by 24 percent to 458 billion cubic meters, in India - by 78% to 107 billion cubic meters, the rest of the countries of Southeast Asia - by 21%, to 191 billion cubic meters.

(financnenoviny.sk/GOF)