Saudis' OPEC exit signals shift to a more fragmented global energy order

CAIRO - The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on Tuesday that it will withdraw from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), ending several years of membership in the cartel. The decision, described by the Emirati authorities as a „sovereign strategic choice“, is said to better reflect the country's long-term economic vision and its mining ambitions. However, experts warn that the move could steer the geopolitics of global energy towards greater fragmentation.

The UAE formalised its withdrawal in a statement on Tuesday by state news agency WAM, confirming its departure from both OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance. The withdrawal will take effect on May 1 and marks the exit of the third-largest producer from the quota system. Analysts estimate that OPEC will lose around 15 % of its production capacity as a result.

Minister for Energy Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei told Reuters that the decision followed „a careful assessment of current and future policies on production levels“ and that the UAE has not consulted with any other country on this issue.

The State Department made a similar statement. Director of Communications Afra Mahash Al Hameli has marked her departure on the X network as „a sovereign strategic choice based on a long-term economic vision“. The move will give the country greater flexibility in the use of energy capacity, boost national development and market confidence, she said.

According to analysts, the UAE's decision reflects a strategic turnaround driven by the expansion of its production capacity and independent export routes. It also shows an ambition to become a global energy leader outside the constraints of the cartel.

Sudanese economist Mohamed Nour El-Din Hashim believes that the exit is motivated by a desire to break out of OPEC production constraints and maximise oil revenues. „This is especially true after Abu Dhabi has invested heavily in expanding its mining capacity in recent years,“ he said.

Despite regional tensions that have nearly crippled shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE has alternative export routes, giving it greater flexibility and boosting confidence in its ability to manage oil policy outside of its collective OPEC+ commitments.

According to an Emirati political analyst Abdulaziz Sultan Al-Mamari the UAE has the ambition to become a broader global energy hub including oil, gas, hydrogen and renewables. The country wants to acquire „greater autonomy“ in managing production and better fulfilling its new role in the global marketplace.

Professor of Politics at the University of Tikrit in Iraq Jumaa Mohammed pointed out that OPEC was finding it increasingly difficult to balance the divergent strategies of its members. „The strongest evidence is that the UAE did not consult Saudi Arabia. This has never happened before in the culture of the GCC countries - major decisions have always been coordinated in advance,“ he said.

But according to Al-Mamari, this does not mean a political split. The Gulf countries, he says, are going through a period of economic and sovereign realignment without undermining their strategic cooperation.

Fragmented Energy Code

The UAE's departure may increase oil price volatility in the short term, according to regional experts, but it also signals a shift from OPEC's collective discipline to a more fragmented and market-oriented energy system.

Syrian professor of political economy Mohammed Belqasim Al Barghouti believes that the departure of such a major producer may weaken OPEC's cohesion, but not its overall influence. „The weight of the organization today depends primarily on the Saudi-led axis within OPEC and its partnership with Russia in OPEC+,“ he said. The impact, according to him, will be in the discipline of the alliance rather than in its disintegration.

Researcher Oytun Orhan of Ankara's Center for Middle East Studies, warned that any sign of fragmentation could increase uncertainty and volatility in oil prices. „If the UAE increases its out-of-quota production, it could push prices down, especially if this is coupled with a slowdown in global demand,“ he said.

Sudanese analyst Abdul-Rahman Awad He warned that the decision could mark the beginning of a new phase where national interests prevail over collective discipline. „The UAE's decision may signal a new phase in the global energy market, where traditional blocs are losing the ability to enforce common discipline and giving way to more independent policies driven by national interests,“ he said.

According to Al-Mamari, the move could accelerate the structural transformation of the global energy sector towards a more open model based on supply, demand and the balance of power between producers.

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