From the "Twelve-Day War" to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: how the war reached where it is today. According to NPR on June 11, Trump posted two contradictory messages on social media: in the morning he threatened Iran with a "devastating blow," and a few hours later he announced its withdrawal, citing successful consultations with Iran's supreme leadership. In the following days, the situation evolved rapidly, and on June 17, a key historical moment occurred.

From "withdrawal" to "signature": a historic turnaround in six days

According to AP and CBC News on June 17 and 18, Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian formally signed a memorandum of understanding and declared the end of the nearly 100-day war. Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif immediately announced that the agreement "enters into force immediately." Trump wrote on Truth Social: "The deal with Iran is closed… I hereby fully authorize the free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and simultaneously authorize the immediate lifting of the US naval blockade. Ships of the world, start your engines, let the oil flow!"

According to NBC News, the 14-point memorandum includes these key provisions: reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the US naval blockade, extending the ceasefire by 60 days (including the Lebanese front), gradual unfreezing of approximately $24 billion in Iranian assets, and launching a 60-day negotiation window for talks on the nuclear program. Iran must order stocks of highly enriched uranium, while the US will grant sanctions exemptions and allow Iran to freely sell oil. However, the agreement does not address the most critical issues. The future of Iran's nuclear program, the question of ballistic missiles, and Iranian proxy groups remain unresolved and are deferred to the 60-day negotiation window. UN Secretary-General Guterres hailed the agreement as a "critical step toward a peaceful resolution"; France, China, and other countries welcomed it.

How this war began

After the Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979, Tehran systematically built a network of proxy groups – Hezbollah, Hamas, and others – creating the so-called "Axis of Resistance" covering Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza. After Trump unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear deal (JCPOA) in 2018, Iran accelerated uranium enrichment. Following Hamas's attack on Israel in October 2023, this proxy network began to crumble. In June 2025, Israel launched Operation Lion's Heart, which sparked the Twelve-Day War and destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities. On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel jointly launched Operation Epic Fury: Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed, and approximately 170 civilians, including female students from an elementary school adjacent to a naval base, were killed. Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a global energy crisis.

Three key obstacles and the 60-day window

According to a research report from the UK House of Commons Library, negotiations were long hindered by three structural contentious points: the US insisted on zero uranium production, while Iran considered the right to enrichment as an insurmountable sovereign boundary; the issue of ballistic missiles was not even admitted by the Iranian side for negotiation; and both sides distrusted each other regarding the timing of sanctions removal. The closed agreement temporarily bypassed these disputes through gradual concessions, but none were fundamentally resolved – everything is being moved to the 60-day negotiation window. Sun Degang, head of Fudan University's Middle East Research Center, stated in his earlier analyses that Iran is intentionally waiting and using time pressure to gain a more favorable position. This assumption will be tested again in the upcoming 60-day negotiations.

Agreement Reached: Open Strait, Unresolved Nuclear Issue

According to PBS News, the agreement likely restores the situation that existed before the war, but at the cost of thousands of lives, and with Iran retaining a new negotiating tool – de facto influence over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the blockade of the strait disrupted the transportation of approximately 15.8 million barrels of oil per day – the largest energy shock since the oil crisis of 1973. After the signing of the agreement, the price of Brent oil fell by more than $4, and global markets rose. While the hundred days of war have temporarily ended, the nuclear negotiations in the upcoming 60-day window will only show whether this agreement is a true peace or just a temporary truce.

NNela.Ni