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North America has entered a period of uncertainty regarding trade relations. While the United States, Mexico, and Canada continue to maintain the USMCA agreement, which replaced NAFTA in 2020, Washington has declined to automatically extend it in its current form. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, following a virtual meeting on Wednesday, stated that the U.S. intends to first address "shortcomings" in the agreement and trade deficits with both neighboring countries. Therefore, the agreement remains in effect, but will be reviewed annually until 2036, unless an agreement is reached.

This is a sensitive signal for businesses. USMCA is not just a political document, but a foundation for integrated manufacturing, where components often cross borders multiple times before a finished product is created. The automotive industry is particularly dependent on this, but so are engineering, agriculture, food processing, mining, and logistics.

Mexican Minister of Economy Marcelo Ebrard, after meeting with Greer and Canadian Minister Dominic LeBlanc, confirmed that significant differences remain between Mexico and the U.S. This is not just about technical details. The future of the automotive industry, steel, aluminum, agriculture, and the broader question of who will truly benefit from the North American economic zone are at stake. Ebrard also emphasized that he does not see any dispute that cannot be resolved through negotiation.

The main point of contention is the rules of origin for automobiles and industrial goods. Washington is advocating for stricter conditions to ensure that the benefits of USMCA are not extended to products that simply use Mexico or Canada as a gateway to easier access to the U.S. market. According to Reuters, the U.S. side previously demanded a higher percentage of U.S. content in vehicles manufactured in North America. However, Ebrard stressed that Mexico will not accept a solution that would harm its automotive sector.

Mexico is also rejecting U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles. The USTR confirmed in June that these sectors were discussed during the negotiations, along with agriculture, labor, the environment, and economic security. The latter now primarily concerns strategic minerals, the resilience of supply chains, and efforts to reduce the region's dependence on inputs from non-member countries.

Canada has supported the extension of the agreement, and LeBlanc pointed out that USMCA supports millions of jobs in North America. Ottawa is also insisting on a resolution to U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, cars, and lumber. Another significant round of negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico is scheduled to take place in Mexico City during the week of July 20th. The outcome will be important not only for the three governments, but also for companies planning production, investments, and supply chains across the entire continent.

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