Daily summary of the Czech economy: GDP, CEZ, e-commerce and the army as a driver (28 July 2025)

Overview of the latest economic events in the Czech Republic

Czech economy showed annual growth in the first quarter of 2025 GDP by 2.2 %, the strongest pace since the end of 2021, with household consumption, an increase in inventories and higher public spending the main drivers. Analysts expect full-year growth to be around 2 %, with more optimistic institutions such as Deloitte and the European Commission estimating 1.6 % and 1.9 % respectively.

Inflation is slightly above the 2 % monetary policy target and, according to the CNB's latest forecast, will average 2.5 % in 2025 and fall to 2.2 % in 2026, with market activity growth expected to remain at around 2 % this year.

There is interesting news coming out of the business sector today. The energy giant CEZ initiated international arbitration proceedings against Bulgaria. The company is seeking hundreds of millions of euros in compensation because of the interventions of the local regulatory authorities, which CEZ claims are harming its business in the country - for example, in fines for abuse of dominance. The case may have implications not only for investment and regulatory relations in the region, but also for the future direction of the company.

Another significant transformation in Czech e-commerce is the acquisition of e-marketplace Mall.cz by Allegro, a major player from Poland. This will create a new, strong entity in the Central European market, which can increase competition and potentially lower prices for Czech customers through greater choice and transaction volume.

An interesting shift is also emerging in the defence industry. Czech arms companies are experiencing a boom - exports in this area account for up to 90 % of production, partly due to the war in Ukraine and growing investment in the modernisation of the army. Some experts are even talking about how defence procurement could become a new driver of the national economy, although sceptical economists warn that the arms sector cannot completely replace the importance of the traditional automotive industry.

Significant events outside the Czech Republic with global impact

The US and the EU reached an agreement on tariffs yesterday 27-28 July: US tariffs on most European exports will drop to 15 %, a significant relief from the 30 % tariffs originally threatened. At the same time, the EU will invest up to USD 600 billion in the US. The markets reacted to this by rising futures in Europe and the US and a slight strengthening of the euro (e.g. EUR/USD to approx. 1.1753).

There is growing concern about global geopolitical risks: tensions in the Middle East have led to a sharp rise in oil prices (Brent up to USD 78/barrel), which may also be reflected in fuel prices in the Czech Republic and increase pressure on inflation as the koruna weakens. Analysts warn that if the conflict does not subside, a more significant impact on domestic energy prices and imports will have to be expected.

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