The shocking electoral defeat of Viktor Orbán by anti-corruption campaigner Péter Magyar has unexpectedly strengthened the position of Czech populist leader Andrej Babiš in Central European politics. In the context of the EU's mounting crises - the energy crisis, deindustrialisation and record global debt - expert Erik Best reveals how pragmatic leaders like Babiš, Orbán and Slovakia's Robert Fico are outsmarting Brussels by staying in the EU to benefit from its imminent collapse. Find out why Hungary's U-turn strengthens Babis at the NATO summit and signals a populist comeback.
In a gripping analysis that is making a splash in geopolitical circles, comes a political expert and journalist Erik Best of American origin with a revolutionary thesis: Viktor Orbán's stunning electoral defeat is not a death knell for European populists - it is fuel for Andrej Babiš's rocket. Fresh from the Hungarian elections, where Orbán's long unbeatable machine Fideszu has collapsed under the onslaught of the anti-corruption wave, Best says this vacuum will catapult Babiš into the position of the EU's chief critic in Central Europe. „Suddenly his position is stronger because Orbán is gone and the Czech Republic is overshadowed by Slovakia,“ jokes Erik Best in a Czech interview with the experienced presenter Alexandra Mynářová on YouTube channel XTV.
Two years ago, he was Péter Magyar 22 years member Fideszu, an unknown person who took a fringe party and turned it into a political power. Driven by opposition to Orbán's „Goebbels-style propaganda“ and corruption scandals, Magyar's party Tisha has achieved a landslide victory. Even Orbán's die-hard supporters are cheering: If he moderates his pro-European enthusiasm, he could succeed. The New York Times named him a rising star as early as 2022 - was it prophetic? Guest Ladislav Jakl predicts that Magyar, as a true „Hungarian“, will not fully submit to Brussels. Erik Best, however, sees this as opportunism: „He took advantage of the crisis and switched to another boat - no firm principles, just adaptability.“
The wave of European „polycrisis“ makes Babiš's promises an almost impossible task. Erik Best lists six huge threats beyond COVID: two wars triggering an energy armageddon, EU elites boasting of „deindustrialisation“ through the Green Deal and the emissions trading scheme (ETS1/ETS2 destroying factories) and the biggest debt pile in human history. What about the US fiscal deficit? The insidious $210 billion hidden in White House propaganda. And the Czech one? A huge deficit of CZK 310 billion. These are not abstract concepts; they are factory closures, power cuts and empty wallets affecting ordinary people from Budapest to Prague.
This is where Andrej Babiš comes in. Without Orbán as a rival, this Czech billionaire and politician - the current Czech prime minister - is leading the charge against NATO's dogma of arms escalation. Czech President Peter Paul's attempt to attract attention at the NATO summit in Washington? This is best described as the excesses of a „pop president“, like a rock star who bends the rules. The Constitution in Section 63 requires the co-signature of the Prime Minister for foreign travel. Pavlov's letter to Babiš screams of overreach. He quickly changed his mind: on 4 April he said: „The delegation is chosen by the government.“ A few weeks later, „My prerogative!“ Prime Minister Andrej Babiš and Foreign Minister Petr Macinka sharply criticized this - disagreement with the US president risks clashes in national politics. Pavel's supporters, such as constitutional expert Jan Kysela, encourage him. A short-term gain in popularity, but a crisis looms.
Erik Best praises „smart money“: Babiš, Orbán, Fico. They harshly criticize the EU's mismanagement, but stay put. Why run now? Václav Klaus warned: opposition to the Lisbon Treaty would topple him. „Wait for the EU to break up on its own,“ urges Erik Best. It's a test of endurance: „How much can we take?“ Maximise the benefits - finance, influence - while insuring against break-up. Is the SPD flirting with a referendum on leaving NATO? Reckless. Confirm loyalty: „We're in, we're defending it - but we're ready if it falls apart.“ Trump's spheres-of-influence strategy (J.D. Vance's love of Budapest) supports this; Orbán's conservative allies in the U.S. mourn his fall while the „erasure“ of Europe accelerates.
Hungary? Just a blip. Ursula von der Leyen exults: „The heart of Europe beats stronger!“ Brussels will squeeze veto reforms out of him. But the crisis will „sweep him away“, Best predicts - an „interim step“ until a corruption-free Orban 2.0 emerges. Hungary's minority government teeters on the brink of coalition collapse or MPs leaving; voters aren't the only ones toppling him. Before the election, Orbán toyed with the idea of seizing presidential power through his parliament, which no longer has any power - now it's passé, but his fifth term (sixth overall) looms in four years, Trump-style. Babiš is his mirror image: speculation about a successor pits him against Havlíček.
This isn't just academic tower talk. Orbán's fall proves that even „autocrats“ (he wasn't, as Erik Best notes - the real autocrats don't lose elections) are subject to the anger caused by corruption. Babiš is flourishing, preferring budgetary prudence to endless aid to Ukraine. The Central European trio (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia) form a realistic bloc that tolerates green pain for the sake of future influence. Trump's return? The parallels between Orbán and Babiš scream of a comeback. The EU's arrogance - decimating its own competitiveness - seals its fate.
Best's verdict: Crises rewrite the rules. Rigid ideologues like Peter Paul are failing; pragmatists who can adapt are ruling. Hungarian surprise? Babiš's gain, Europe's awakening.
gnews.cz - GH
You can watch the full video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fraVuaO9C3g
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