The FIFA World Cup is entering its decisive phase after the second matches in the group stages. Some teams are already celebrating their qualification, while others have everything to play for, and some national teams will be hoping for a lifeline in the form of a third-place finish. This is particularly important in the expanded tournament: eight of the twelve teams in third place will advance to the knockout stage.

Group A

Mexico has secured its qualification and is practically guaranteed to win the group after winning against South Africa and South Korea, because in case of a tie in points, the head-to-head match against South Korea favors them. South Korea is in the best position for second place, but still needs to overcome South Africa. Czech Republic is in third place and needs to beat Mexico to have a realistic chance; a draw is likely not enough. Therefore, Czech Republic, and potentially South Korea if they lose, can realistically compete for third place, while South Africa must win and hope for a favorable outcome.

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Group B

Canada and Switzerland both have four points, and their match will be a direct battle for first place. Both teams are very close to qualifying, although they still need to take the final step. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar both have one point, and their chances depend on winning their last match. Bosnia and Herzegovina has a significantly better starting position than Qatar due to a better goal difference. The loser of the match between Canada and Switzerland, or the winner of the match between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar, can realistically qualify from third place.

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Group C

Brazil and Morocco both have four points and are in the qualification positions, but Scotland with three points could still significantly shake up the standings. Brazil will face Scotland, while Morocco will play against the already eliminated Haiti. Brazil is closest to first place, but Morocco has a very good chance of confirming at least a direct qualification. Scotland could overtake Brazil with a win, and would remain third if they lose, and would have to wait for a comparison with the other groups. Haiti is already out of the running.

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Group DUSA have already secured their place and the top spot in the group, so their match against Turkey is practically insignificant in terms of qualification mathematics. Australia and Paraguay will compete for the second place. Australia only needs a draw, while Paraguay needs to win if they want to advance directly. Paraguay has a chance to qualify for the next round from the third place: a draw would give them four points, which is usually a strong position for the third team. If they lose, they would remain on three points and face a nerve-wracking lottery.

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Group E

Germany has already secured their place and the top spot. However, the rest of the group is still open. Ivory Coast has three points and is in the best position for the second place, while Ecuador and Curaçao have one point each and need to step up their game. Ivory Coast can significantly improve their chances of advancing against Curaçao, while Ecuador faces the toughest possible opponent – Germany. Any of the three teams, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, and Curaçao, could potentially qualify for the next round from the third place, but a draw would likely be insufficient for Ecuador and Curaçao.

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Group F

Netherlands and Japan both have four points and appear to be the main contenders for direct qualification. Sweden has three points and can change everything in their last match against Japan. Netherlands is playing against the eliminated Tunisia and should secure their place. Japan only needs to avoid losing to Sweden, while Sweden ideally needs a win. This group has decent chances for qualification from the third place: Japan would remain on four points even with a loss, Sweden would also have four points with a draw, three with a loss, and would be waiting.

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Group G

Egypt leads the group with four points, but is not yet comfortable. Iran and Belgium both have two points, while New Zealand has one. Egypt only needs a draw against Iran, while Belgium needs to beat New Zealand if they don't want to risk it. Iran can advance past Egypt with a win, but a draw could still give them hope. The qualification from the third place in this group is very uncertain: two points will likely be too few, three could be borderline, and four would be very promising. The biggest pressure is therefore on Belgium and Iran.

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Group HSpain has four points and the best starting position, but Uruguay and Cape Verde are still in the running. Saudi Arabia has one point and must win against Cape Verde, otherwise they are out. Spain only needs a draw against Uruguay, while Uruguay ideally needs to win to avoid relying on a third-place finish. Cape Verde has a good chance against Saudi Arabia to reach five points. Uruguay, Cape Verde, or Saudi Arabia could realistically finish in third place, but only four points would look really promising.

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Group I

France and Norway have six points each and are guaranteed to advance, and their match will determine the group winner. Senegal and Iraq have no points, but thanks to the system of third-place rankings, they are still playing for the last hope. The winner of their match will finish third with three points. Senegal is in a better position because they have a significantly better goal difference than Iraq going into the final round. However, even so, the third-placed team in this group will have to wait for the results of the other matches.

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Group J

Argentina has secured both advancement and first place. Austria and Algeria each have three points, and their match will be a direct battle for second place. Austria has a better goal difference, so a draw will be enough for them to maintain second place. Algeria needs to win if they don't want to rely on the table for third-placed teams. The team with a good chance of finishing in third place is the one that remains behind the qualifying duo, especially if the match ends in a draw and the third team has four points. Jordan is already eliminated.

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Group K

Colombia has secured advancement with two wins and will play against Portugal for first place. Portugal has four points and, thanks to a high win against Uzbekistan and a great goal difference, is very close to advancing. DR Congo has one point and must defeat Uzbekistan to reach four points and seriously consider advancing from third place. Uzbekistan could theoretically finish third with three points, but they have a very poor goal difference after heavy defeats. The most realistic third-place hope for this group is DR Congo, if they can win their last match.

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Group L

England and Ghana both have four points, Croatia has three, and Panama is eliminated. England has the best position going into the match against Panama and should secure their place in the next round. Ghana is playing Croatia in a direct match for qualification: a draw is enough for Ghana, while Croatia needs to win to guarantee direct qualification. This group has a very good chance of having a team advance from third place. Ghana would remain on four points even with a loss, and Croatia would also have four points with a draw, which is a strong starting position for the table of third-placed teams.

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