What does the easing of Washington's oil blockade mean for Cuba?

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HAVANA - The Russian Transport Ministry said Monday that the tanker Anatoly Kolodkin has transported some 100,000 tons of oil to Cuba as humanitarian aid. According to White House spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt, Washington authorized the shipment for „humanitarian reasons“ while the Caribbean country faces severe shortages due to the full U.S. oil blockade. Why is the oil supply important to Cuban society? What does Washington's easing of the oil blockade mean?

Timely delivery

Cuban Minister for Energy and Mining Vicente de la O Levy on Tuesday thanked Russia for „a valuable supply that comes in the midst of the complex energy situation we face“.

Cuba produces barely 40 % of its fuel needs and is heavily dependent on imports to sustain its energy system. Its domestic oil is heavy and difficult to process into diesel and other light products in outdated refineries with limited capacity.

Experts estimate that the Russian supply could provide about 180,000 barrels of oil, enough to cover Cuba's daily demand for nine to ten days.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia will continue to work on oil supplies to Cuba and considers it its responsibility to provide the necessary assistance in the current conditions.

Under the US blockade, Cuba is experiencing one of its worst economic crises since the 1990s. The country has already experienced three nationwide blackouts in March. Shortages of petrol and basic resources have crippled hospitals, limited public transport and strained almost all key services.

Water supply has also been affected by the shortages. More than 80 % of Cuba's population is dependent on a water system connected to the national electricity grid, said on Thursday Antonio Rodríguez, Chairman of the National Water Resources Institute.

Living conditions have worsened significantly, with frequent and long power cuts, transport and mobility problems and increasing pressure on public services, Claudia Marín Suárez, a researcher at the Center for International Policy Research, told Xinhua.

Change of policy?

Since January, Donald Trump's administration has imposed a new round of oil restrictions on Cuba and repeatedly issued military threats. The forced detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on 3 January severely disrupted oil supplies from Venezuela. Cuba also lost supplies from other suppliers, including Mexico, after Washington threatened additional tariffs.

It is not clear why the administration decided not to detain the Russian tanker. According to Caroline Leavitt, decisions are being made „case by case“ a „there has been no formal change in sanctions policy“.

„If a country now wants to send oil to Cuba, I have no problem with that, whether it's Russia or anyone else,“ U.S. President Donald Trump said Sunday night, while reiterating that Cuba is „next.“ after the military operation against Iran.

Cuba is negotiating with the United States to resolve bilateral differences, with talks still in an early stage, President Miguel Díaz-Canel said in a video broadcast on state television on 13 March.

Cuban Chargé d'Affaires in the United States Lianys Torres Rivera indicated Tuesday that Havana is willing to pursue economic reforms and expand trade relations with the United States.

„There is a wide range of topics that we can discuss with the United States, and we believe they are in the interests of both countries,“ she said in an interview with USA Today.

Michael Bustamante, head of the Cuban and Cuban-American Studies Program at the University of Miami, called the Trump administration's approach „very, very unpredictable“, according to the US think-tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

Hidden Motives

Senior US officials have indicated to the media that the ultimate goal of Donald Trump's tough policies and sanctions is to push for reforms in Cuba, including a possible change of leadership.

But experts doubt the likelihood of a Venezuela-style military intervention, especially as the United States engages in a widening conflict with Iran. „This is not Venezuela,“ He told Will Freeman from the CFR. „Cuba's prospects are very uncertain at best.“

Analysts say the recent US flexibility may be tactical. Domestic political pressures and the costs of the conflict with Iran may have prompted Washington to temporarily ease sanctions, he told Xinhua Luis René Fernández Tabío, professor at the Center for International Economic Research at the University of Havana.

„I believe that the direction of US policy has not changed and cannot be expected to adjust the mix of tools it uses to achieve its objectives in the short term - either by force or by so-called ‚soft power‘ tools,“ He added.

„Cuba was initially underestimated in the eyes of Donald Trump and (US Secretary of State) Marco Rubio,“ Tabío said. „Over time, however, it became clear that Trump's narrative did not match reality. Cuba is not submitting to the United States even in the midst of a crisis exacerbated by fuel shortages.“

Suárez noted that the sanctions reflect Washington's broader efforts to maintain dominance and control in the Western Hemisphere, particularly in the Caribbean.

„Instead of competing through better development opportunities, the United States is intensifying pressure through unilateral coercive measures,“ she said. „These measures are becoming more pronounced in the Western Hemisphere, especially in the Caribbean.“

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