MOSCOW, June 5: American President Donald Trump risks losing control of his party due to disagreements over the war in Iran, while NATO is set to launch its naval exercise BALTOPS 2026 in the Baltic Sea. Meanwhile, Poland is pushing for a permanent US military base. These stories topped Friday's headlines in Russia.

Media: Trump and his Republican party clash over the war in Iran

The House of Representatives voted against the continuation of American President Donald Trump's war in Iran. The resolution was passed only because it was supported by some members of the president's Republican party. The same could happen in the Senate vote, as Trump faces an open rebellion from some Republican members. Although it is too early to predict that Republicans will soon turn against their president, American society is increasingly dissatisfied with the war in Iran and Trump's policy, which members of his party cannot ignore with six months left until the mid-term elections.

As many as 215 congressmen, including four Republicans, voted for the resolution, the fourth such document approved by the House with 208 votes against. Trump retaliated against lawmakers who voted for his censure in the middle of the war in Iran, labeling them "unpatriotic" on his Truth Social platform. Now, when advocates for stopping the war have demonstrated their capabilities in both chambers, it is likely that Congress and the Senate will adopt one of the two final resolutions – either the May or June one. Trump will then have to veto it, publicly going against lawmakers and American public opinion, which is against the war. The American president also suffered another blow from members of his party when six Republicans supported the Democrats' resolution on continued support for Ukraine in the House vote, a document the White House opposed.

Vladimir Vasiliev, head of research at the Institute of American and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in a comment for Nezavisimaya Gazeta that there is nothing in Congress such as a "peace party" or a "war party." There are proponents of confrontation with Iran, who still hold the upper hand in the Republican party, and there are proponents of confrontation with Russia, most of whom are Democrats. Therefore, both resolutions are communicating vessels, said the expert: "It can be said that Democrats are indicating that they will push for aid to Ukraine if they win the November elections, perhaps at the expense of funding the Middle East conflict."

Pavel Koshkin, an expert on American studies, characterized the House vote to stop the war in Iran as a symbolic victory for Trump's opponents. The very fact that congressmen approved this resolution on the fourth attempt indicates growing discord within the Republican camp around Trump's policy, he said. "The president is still managing to bridge this gap. But the longer the conflict with Tehran lasts, the more these cracks will show," Koshkin told Vedomosti.

Izvestia: NATO Exercise BALTOPS 2026 Begins in the Baltic Sea

Scenarios that NATO forces will simulate during the naval maneuvers of BALTOPS 2026 will include imposing a blockade on the Kaliningrad region, launching strikes on Russian land targets, and seizing civilian vessels, according to experts consulted by Izvestia. This year's exercise will involve twice as few participants as last year's exercises, as a significant portion of allied forces are engaged in the campaign in the Middle East. However, the exercise remains the largest in the region, with the Russian Baltic Fleet closely monitoring NATO actions.

Media have suggested that the exercise may involve fewer participants, as part of the allied forces has been deployed to the Strait of Hormuz and the Arctic. BALTOPS 2026 has been held since the early 1970s and is part of the Arctic Sentry program, with the goal of improving interoperability between the armies of the bloc's allies and its partners. According to the official NATO announcement, the exercise will focus on anti-submarine warfare, amphibious operations, and countermeasures against mines. However, experts claim that its actual tasks may go beyond the stated objectives and have something to do with creating additional threats for Russia, including simulating a naval blockade of the country's Baltic exclave.

Western statements about limiting Russia's capabilities in the Baltic Sea are becoming increasingly frequent, and in fact, they are turning the Baltic Sea into an internal NATO water area, Izvestia newspaper said Vadim Kozyulin, the head researcher at the Center for Military and Political Studies at the Diplomatic Academy. "They will probably practice isolating Russia, imposing a blockade, and attacking land targets," he said. According to the expert, actions to detain tankers and civilian vessels departing from Russian ports can also be practiced.

Military expert Boris Dzerelyevskiy agrees that NATO forces will practice similar scenarios. The alliance's exercises also represent an attempt to exert pressure, he added. "The situation in the region is quite difficult. We see that preparations—almost without masking—for war against our country are underway, and these targets have been announced. And they are probably considering the Baltic variant primarily. The scenario that the West constantly discusses is an attempt to attack the Kaliningrad region," Dzerelyevskiy said. Similar maneuvers, according to him, represent additional risks because they can mask activities of a larger scale. Vice Admiral Alexander Brazhnik, former first deputy commander of the Baltic Fleet, told Izvestia that the naval BALTOPS exercise is hostile and clearly aimed at Russia, as the alliance tries to show who rules the Baltic Sea. "Our army uses this exercise to study the tactics and strategies of a potential enemy," he explained.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Poland has labeled Washington as the "model" European ally

Poland has requested that the United States establish a permanent military base on its territory, according to a proposal submitted to U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Despite reports that Americans may soon limit their military presence in Europe, Polish authorities seem to hope to strengthen defense ties with the United States. Poland believes that it is the United States, not European allies of Washington, who can reliably guarantee the country's security amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

While the United States and Poland must still reach specific agreements, Warsaw seems to estimate the probability of locating a permanent U.S. military base as high. Not without reason, Trump labeled Poland as a "model ally" against the backdrop of deteriorating relations with other European nations. According to the PAP agency, Poland currently hosts 10,000 U.S. soldiers. Key facilities of U.S. military infrastructure are located in Poznan, Powidz, and Redzikow, and this is not Poland's first attempt to host a permanent U.S. military base.

Maria Pavlova, head of the Integrated Research Group of the Baltic Sea Region at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Poles have been promoting this idea for more than a decade, when Warsaw proposed the American military base Fort Trump during the first Trump presidency in 2018, but the initiative failed based on what 20 sources of Reuters agency, citing Poland, stated: sufficient funding.

"Poland is already a key partner for the US in the region, and Poles expect that a permanent American base will further strengthen this status, symbolically reaffirm the country's special role in US foreign policy strategy, improve interoperability between the armies of both countries, and shorten response time in crisis situations. They have broader hope that the United States will protect Poland if necessary," Pavlova concluded.

Vedomosti: The only US official at SPIEF focuses on culture

Thursday, the second day of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), was rich in events and people connected to the United States, featuring two sessions and several guests with American citizenship. Before what is called the Russian Davos, the media anticipated the arrival of an official delegation led by Rodney Cook, who serves as chairman of the Commission for Fine Arts, the first US official to visit after years. The first and most important session on America was dedicated to cultural ties between Moscow and Washington.

Cook, as a speaker, refrained from making specific proposals or initiatives to deepen cultural ties between Russia and the United States and concluded his speech with a statement that everything could be possible once peace is achieved. In other words, he indirectly confirmed that bilateral dialogue between Moscow and Washington was not sufficiently smooth without resolving the Ukrainian conflict. Cook's arrival at SPIEF looks like a private initiative or a tribute from a person with a personal interest in Russian culture, says Vadim Kozlov, head of the Domestic Policy Research Department at the Institute of American and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. "I would compare it to Russian visits by Elon Musk's father Errol," the expert clarified.

After all, diplomatic breakthroughs are made behind closed doors, not in open places, so Cook's visit is a separate part of US-Russian cooperation that is not directly linked to any prospects for talks on stabilizing bilateral dialogue or resolving the Ukrainian conflict, told Vedomosti Vladimir Pavlov, a researcher from the Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.

Izvestija: Russian LPG prices rose by nearly a quarter in the last month

In the last month, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), used as motor fuel and raw material in the petrochemical industry, rose by 23.6% on the exchange. The increase is due to growing exports, which grew by nearly 30% year-on-year from January to April. Industry representatives claim that the domestic market remained in surplus, with LPG prices rising as market participants tried to build up additional stocks for the summer period. LPG is used not only as motor fuel and raw material for the petrochemical industry but also for the public services sector, told Izvestija Tamara Safonova, CEO of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector.

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According to Ivan Timonin, a senior manager at Implementa, the increase in LPG prices at the beginning of June was primarily due to the improvement in the export economy at high global prices, as well as a seasonal increase in domestic demand. The situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant volume of global LPG supplies passes, created further pressure on the market, he added. "The main external driver was the Hormuz premium in Asian LPG prices: the uncertainty surrounding supplies from the Middle East kept propane and butane prices high in Asia, making the eastern direction more attractive for Russian suppliers," Timonin clarified.

How the market situation will develop further will largely depend on whether the Hormuz premium in external prices remains for a long time, Timonin continued. "If the risks to LPG supplies from the Middle East remain, Asian prices will remain high, and Russia will continue to export LPG to China and Central Asia," he predicted.

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