Leaked documents reveal that the European Union is planning to offset its emissions reductions by purchasing carbon credits from abroad, an amount equivalent to the annual emissions of France and Belgium. This is according to a presentation by the European Commission, which was viewed by the POLITICO news outlet.

In July, the Commission presented a proposal for a climate target for 2040: a 90 percent reduction in emissions compared to 1990. The plan includes the possibility of purchasing international carbon credits, meaning that emissions reductions achieved in developing countries would be counted towards the EU's target. The Commission did not disclose to members of parliament or journalists how many credits the EU would need to purchase.

However, an internal estimate exists. According to figures shown to member states by the Commission last summer, the amount of credits purchased could range from 140 to 430 million tons of CO₂ by 2040. For comparison, France emitted approximately 340 million tons in 2023, and Belgium emitted less than 100 million. In the upper scenario, this would be equivalent to the combined emissions of the two countries. The EU's total emissions are projected to be below 500 million tons in 2040.

Each credit represents one ton, and therefore a significant financial amount. For example, Switzerland currently pays around $40 per credit. If the EU were to avoid cheap and questionable certificates that cost less than €10, it would mean billions of euros in expenses. Furthermore, these funds would not be available for decarbonizing European industry. In the next decade, the EU will need to invest heavily in the domestic transformation of heavy industries.

According to the EU's scientific advisors, using credits to achieve the 2040 target would be a step backward. Member states are required to meet existing commitments – the climate targets for 2030 and 2050 – through purely domestic measures, as stipulated by the European Climate Law. The possibility of purchasing credits would therefore represent a significant departure from current policy.

However, the Commission believes that "credits" will help to gain the support of member states, who are still hesitant about new, ambitious commitments. The European Parliament remains divided, while most governments support the idea. The proposal will be discussed on September 18. "The Commission has never shown me the figure of 430 million," said Socialist and Democrats negotiator Javi López to POLITICO.

Detailed legislation regarding the actual purchases is not expected until the end of 2026. The uncertainty surrounding the scope of the purchases is therefore complicating negotiations in both the Council and the European Parliament.

The leaked presentation also outlines various scenarios. Credits could serve as a safety net if the target is not met, as a flexible tool for individual countries, or as a means of achieving "additional" reductions – meaning that domestic emissions would only be reduced by 87 percent, and the remainder would be "bought" through credits. The Commission prefers this last option.

According to the calculation method, the EU would either purchase 140 million credits between 2036 and 2040, or gradually increase the amount each year, reaching 140 million in 2040 – which would total 430 million credits. In the second case, the Union would not only pollute more but also spend more.

Whether the Commission will succeed with this strategy remains to be seen. As POLITICO summarizes, the EU is playing a high-stakes game of climate poker – between ambition, compromise, and reality.

POLITICO/gnews.cz - GH