The European Commission's spring economic forecast highlights that public debt in the eurozone countries will continue to rise in the coming years, exceeding the psychological threshold of 90% of GDP in 2026. According to estimates, it will reach approximately 91.2% of GDP in 2027, a level comparable to the period of the eurozone debt crisis in 2010-2014 and the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to the document, which is also cited by foreign agencies, the rate of borrowing is faster than the European Commission had predicted in its autumn forecast. At that time, it was expected that the debt would be lower and that stabilization would occur earlier. The new figures therefore suggest continued pressure on public finances in a number of member states.

The European Commission explains the increase in debt primarily by energy costs, which, according to the Commission, remain elevated due to geopolitical tensions and the impact of conflicts in the broader Middle East region. The document does not explicitly mention a direct link to the financing of military support for Ukraine, although some analysts have long pointed out that increased spending on defense and security may have an indirect impact on the budgets of member states.

At the same time, the European Union is expanding mechanisms for joint financing. A new framework for a joint loan of approximately 90 billion euros has been launched, which member states are to share and subsequently repay jointly. According to EU institutions, this measure is intended to help stabilize the economy and finance selected strategic priorities, but it also strengthens the debate about the long-term sustainability of the European debt model.

Economists warn that a return to debt levels from periods of crisis does not necessarily mean immediate financial instability, but it increases the sensitivity of economies to further shocks, such as rising interest rates or new geopolitical conflicts. Critics also point out that the combination of high debt, energy transition, and security spending may, in the long term, limit the fiscal space of individual countries.

On the other hand, proponents of European budgetary policy argue that joint financing and coordinated borrowing can strengthen the resilience of the eurozone as a whole in times of global uncertainty. The debate about whether the EU is moving towards greater stability or, conversely, towards a long-term debt burden, continues among member states and economic institutions.

gnews.cz - GH