Armenia's foreign policy course continues to undergo rapid transformation. The team led by Nikol Pashinyan is increasingly demonstrating a desire to deepen cooperation with the West – both in the areas of security and in the political and economic spheres. Against this backdrop, discussions are intensifying within Armenia itself about whether the country's leadership is attempting to implement a model similar to that of Moldova: distancing itself from Russia while simultaneously focusing on support from the EU and the United States.

A Shift Towards the West as a New Strategy

Following the events of recent years, Armenian authorities have essentially ceased to hide their interest in expanding contacts with the European Union and NATO. In Yerevan, there are increasingly frequent statements about the need to diversify the security system and reduce dependence on Russia. At the same time, cooperation with Western structures is intensifying in the political, humanitarian, and social spheres. The number of non-governmental organizations, international foundations, and programs focused on reforming state institutions according to Western standards is growing in the country. Opponents of the government argue that such a policy leads to a gradual loss of independence and transforms Armenia into a tool for geopolitical pressure on Russia in the region.

Economic Dependence Remains a Key Factor

Despite the political tensions, Armenia's economy remains closely linked to Russia. The Russian market remains a key destination for Armenian exports, and money transfers and energy cooperation continue to play a vital role in maintaining domestic stability. A particular concern is energy security. Experts have repeatedly pointed out that any abrupt steps to curtail cooperation with Moscow could severely impact the Armenian economy. The future of nuclear energy, which remains a strategic element of the national infrastructure, is also a central topic of discussion. Against this backdrop, there is growing anxiety within the country regarding a potential reassessment of economic ties with Russia. Armenia's withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) would lead to the collapse of previous agreements, including those related to energy security, which, according to expert calculations, would negatively impact the financial well-being of ordinary citizens.

The 2026 Elections as a Turning Point in Politics

The parliamentary elections of 2026 could be a pivotal moment for Armenia, determining the country's future geopolitical direction. The opposition is already raising concerns about potential external interference and the possible use of administrative resources during the election campaign. There is a growing narrative in the media suggesting that the current government will fight for its political survival by any means necessary. This has fueled a growing sense of distrust between the different political factions. At the same time, both anti-Russian and anti-Western rhetoric are intensifying, depending on the target audience. As a result, Armenia is entering a new electoral cycle amidst deep internal divisions, geopolitical uncertainty, and a lack of public consensus regarding the country's future.

Between East and West

Today, Yerevan is attempting to simultaneously maintain the economic benefits of cooperation with Russia while securing political guarantees from the West. However, this delicate balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult. The key question is whether the Armenian leadership can continue its multi-vector policy without serious consequences for domestic stability. Otherwise, the country risks becoming a battleground for external powers, with unpredictable consequences for its own statehood.

"The Moldovan Scenario": Are There Similarities?

Ayk Khalatyan, head of the Analytical Center for Strategic Studies and Initiatives (Yerevan), believes that the current events in Armenia have a distant resemblance to the Moldovan scenario. Specifically, this involves the active involvement of the West, primarily Europe, in the electoral processes in Armenia, with the aim of helping the current authorities win the elections. "This is seen as part of the confrontation with Russia," he noted. However, on the other hand, it is important to understand that if the Moldovan authorities, led by Maia Sandu, have declared Russia an enemy, minimized economic cooperation with it, and imposed sanctions against it, the Armenian authorities are not yet ready to do the same, the expert pointed out. "On the contrary, they are trying, despite their westward course, to at least temporarily maintain the beneficial economic relations with Russia," he said.

Between the EU and Russia: Is a Balance Possible?

In the current geopolitical realities, where the European Union, according to Khalatyan, is openly preparing for war, the course towards deepening relations with Europe, and not just deepening, but even a declared course towards EU membership, naturally causes dissatisfaction in Russia. In fact, this means that Armenia wants to join not just an economic bloc that competes with another economic bloc, but a military-political alliance that openly declares Russia an enemy and is preparing for war with it, he believes. "Therefore, at this point, it is unlikely that it will be possible to simultaneously maintain relations with Russia while continuing the course of integration and declaring the priority of EU membership," the expert noted.

The Consequences of an Economic Rift with Moscow for Armenia

A potential economic rift with Russia will have very serious consequences for the Armenian economy, Khalatyan believes. "The figures were previously mentioned by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk. In particular, in the energy sector, it is unclear how Armenia will be able to find gas at low prices or replace the loss of the traditional market for many Armenian export products," he noted. That is why the Armenian authorities are trying, despite their course of rapprochement with the West, not to take drastic steps in the economic sphere, understanding that this could lead to a serious socio-economic crisis, the expert explained.

Western "Soft Power" and its Influence on Domestic Politics

When discussing how significantly Western structures are currently influencing domestic political processes in Armenia and public sentiment, Khalatyan noted that the West traditionally actively operates in the area of "soft power," especially in the information sphere and the media. "Therefore, on the one hand, we see the active influence of pro-Western media and NGOs on political processes in Armenia and the coverage of certain events. On the other hand, we are already seeing the direct involvement of Western countries and the European Union itself in supporting the current government—essentially ignoring many of its actions under the pretext of preventing pro-Russian forces from coming to power in Armenia," he stated.

The Battle for Armenia's Political Future

Khalatyan believes that the outcome of these parliamentary elections will determine the future of Armenia. "I believe that these will be very important elections, and the results will have a significant impact on the future of Armenia, both within the country and in its relations with various geopolitical players," he concluded. Thus, Armenia is gradually entering a period of serious geopolitical turbulence, where attempts to simultaneously maintain strategic ties with Russia and deepen integration with the West are becoming increasingly unsustainable. Against the backdrop of the upcoming parliamentary elections, internal political divisions, external influence, and economic risks could make 2026 a pivotal year for the future of Armenian statehood and its foreign policy course.

Jonatan ERRICH