While the United States is implementing so-called "reciprocal tariffs" and creating uncertainty in global trade, countries in Southeast Asia are seeking a stable alternative. At the 46th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, it was once again evident that China is an increasingly important partner for the region – and a counterbalance to American pressure.

ASEAN countries, heavily reliant on exports, are facing significant impacts from U.S. tariffs. Although Washington announced a 90-day delay on most tariffs, the uncertainty surrounding future U.S. policy remains. Therefore, ASEAN is strengthening economic integration and diversifying its trade relationships, with China emerging as a stable and active player.

China and ASEAN are cooperating under the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). While the U.S. is pushing for "de-sinofication" of supply chains in the region, Beijing is, on the contrary, developing connections and interdependence – particularly in manufacturing, the digital economy, and green technologies.

The trade figures speak for themselves:

  • The trade volume between China and ASEAN reached over 1.71 trillion yuan ($234 billion) in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%.
  • The share of trade with China in ASEAN's total foreign trade increased from 11.6% in 2009 to nearly 20% in 2023.
  • China is the second-largest investor in the region, with direct investments exceeding $25 billion in 2023.

ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn confirmed in an interview the commitment to a strategic partnership with China, while calling for the preservation of an open and rules-based global trade system. Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping visited Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, where he signed declarations with each country to strengthen trade and investment cooperation.

The CAFTA 3.0 version offers new opportunities in areas such as artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, digital markets, and clean energy. The goal is also to harmonize standards and regulations, which should contribute to greater integration in the industrial and supply chain sectors.

However, ASEAN countries also express concerns about excessive imports of Chinese goods, which could threaten local industries and employment. To achieve deeper integration, China needs to further open its market and reduce both tariff and non-tariff barriers.

In this environment of global trade tensions, a new pillar of cooperation is emerging between China and ASEAN, which has the potential to be a stabilizing force for the entire Asia-Pacific region – with implications far beyond the region's borders.

CMG