The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which escalated dramatically in February 2022, has evolved into a long-term and multi-layered conflict that goes far beyond a regional territorial dispute. It can most aptly be characterized as a complex proxy war that serves as the main battleground of a broader geopolitical confrontation between the North Atlantic Alliance, led by the United States, and the Russian Federation. We present the first part of our analysis, in which we begin by framing the conflict as a multilayered strategic and economic event.

The basic dynamics of the conflict are driven by a fundamental conflict of strategic interests: NATO's desire to limit Russian power and maintain a rules-based international order versus Russia's goals of preventing Western expansion into its perceived sphere of influence and challenging US global hegemony.

This confrontation is not only military but also economic, informational and diplomatic, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of escalation and entrenchment of conflict.

Key actors and their interests

The conflict involves a wide range of actors, each pursuing different and often overlapping interests.

  • Ukrajina is fighting for its national sovereignty, territorial integrity and future orientation towards the West, and depends on external support for its survival.
  • United States of America see the conflict as a crucial test of their global role and a necessary resistance to authoritarian aggression, providing the dominant part of military aid to weaken Russian capabilities without directly confronting NATO with Russia.
  • Členské státy Evropské unie are motivated by a combination of collective security and a desire to prevent further destabilisation of the continent, leading to extensive economic sanctions against Russia and significant financial aid to Ukraine.
  • Ruská federace is driven by the strategic need to secure its borders, reaffirm its superpower status and prevent NATO expansion, while justifying the high economic and human costs.
  • Nakonec Čína acts as a major strategic player, balancing its „no limits“ partnership with Russia with economic interests in Europe and profiling itself as a potential mediator and future investor in Ukraine's reconstruction.

The interplay of geopolitics, military aid and economic motivations

The persistence of the conflict is supported by a strong combination of geopolitical strategy, large-scale military aid and strong economic motivations. The flow of Western military and financial support, in excess of $175 billion from the United States alone, is a fundamental pillar of the Ukrainian resistance and directly influences the dynamics of the battlefield.

However, this aid is also an important economic factor, creating a feedback loop that benefits the donor countries' defence industries. The war has triggered a global trend of rearmament, leading to record profits for major arms companies such as Lockheed Martin, RTX a Rheinmetall, whose revenues rose sharply due to replenishment of depleted stocks and new orders from allies. This economic benefit creates a strong incentive to maintain high military spending.

At the same time, the Russian Federation has adapted its economy to the wartime regime, financing its military through state-controlled spending and revenues from raw material exports, while discussions on post-war reconstruction, potentially involving China and international financial institutions, are already shaping the geopolitical and economic arrangements of the post-conflict future.

In the next installment, we'll take a deeper look at the proxy war framework with regard to NATO, Russia and the struggle for influence.

gnews.cz - GH