Tensions between the United States and Iran temporarily eased after weeks of escalation when Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire. Yet its future remains uncertain and, according to many analysts and politicians, there is no clear winner or loser.
Turkey as a key mediator
According to the Turkish daily Hurriyet, Turkey played an important role in negotiating the ceasefire, with its leadership holding dozens of telephone conversations with officials in Ankara, Washington, Tehran and other capitals. Ankara is now seeking to turn the short-term pause in fighting into a more permanent agreement. Talks between the US and Iran are expected to continue in Islamabad.
Iran resisted, the West fell short
Commentator Hande Firat pointed out that although the conflict has no clear winner, Iran has not emerged a loser. The regime has remained stable and its missile capabilities have not been fundamentally weakened. In contrast, she said, the United States faced losses and had exhausted a significant part of its missile stockpile. Thus, both Israel and the US have not achieved full success.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a problem
Despite the ceasefire, sporadic attacks continued between Iran and Israel and the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Washington has therefore called on NATO allies to urgently submit plans to ensure the security of shipping.
Iran's distrust of the US persists
Iranian Ambassador Ali Mojtaba Rouzbahani said Tehran sees the ceasefire as a test of US credibility. He stressed that Iran would carefully verify Washington's actions and would not rely solely on diplomatic promises.
Tensions between allies
According to The Wall Street Journal, Israel was not satisfied with the US approach. Benjamin Netanyahu should have been informed of the agreement at the last minute and without coordination. Moreover, Tel Aviv refused to include the conflict with Hezbollah in the ceasefire.
Impacts on oil and world markets
The conflict has also significantly affected the energy sector. Experts say it could take months to restore oil supplies to previous levels due to damaged infrastructure and limited traffic in the Gulf region.
The negotiations in Pakistan will be decisive
Further developments will depend on the upcoming negotiations, which are to take place in Islamabad under tight security measures. The talks are expected to last several days and may decide the future of the ceasefire.
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